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MSTR

Strategy IncClose $97.68EOD only

Max Pain

$95.00

Next expiry Aug 21, 2026

Expected Move

±$6.07

6.2% from close

Price Gap

-2.68

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

0.87

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

6.5/10

Bearish tilt

Published snapshot: Aug 17, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSTR options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Aug 17, 2026 close

MSTR Theta Report

Analysis based on market close June 29, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Consensus-supported lens with chain history and key metrics in the rail.

Theta Verdict

Confidence:

5.5 / 10

base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -0.5 spot 4.1% from MP; +1 VIX 18

IV Environment

IV Regime

High

IV vs VIX

Avg IV 105.4% vs VIX 17.65%: elevated single-stock risk.

Favorable?

Yes

Term structure: Front-end at 98%, decays to ~89% by Oct, slight rise back-end.

📈IV high relative to VIX, rich premiums.

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Above

GEX regime: Pinning ($+21.7M)

Gamma flip: ~$80.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 16,977 (13.7% below spot)

OI concentrations: Max pain $89, $100, $116; call wall $125, put floor $50-$80.

Verdict: Pinning likely near $89 due to positive GEX and max pain, but bearish flow may pull lower.

Premium Opportunities

Put credit spread

Sell 2026-07-24 $89.00/$85.00 put spread

Sell 89/85 put spread to collect premium with defined risk

Credit: $1.10-$1.35

Max loss: $2.65

BE: $87.65

Mgmt: Exit if spot breaks $89 invalidation Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_put: Open interest below 25.

Short strangle

Sell 2026-07-31 $85.00 put + sell $110.00 call

Sell 85 put and 110 call to capture IV contraction

Credit: $9.68-$11.83

Max loss: Unlimited

BE: 73.17 / 121.83

Mgmt: Monitor gamma risk; set stop-loss on break of range

Risk Alerts

!Spot above max pain with bearish flow increases downside risk.

!High put skew implies hedging pressure; watch $80 gamma flip.

How to Use These Reports

This theta reflects the market close on June 29, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.