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MSTR

Strategy IncClose $164.63EOD only
Max Pain
$170.00
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$9.28
5.6% from close
Price Gap
+5.37
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
29
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.90
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
4.0/10
Bearish tilt
Published snapshot: May 19, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSTR options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 19, 2026 close
MSTR Theta Report
Analysis based on market close May 19, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Consensus-supported lens with chain history and key metrics in the rail.

Theta Verdict

Attractiveness5 / 10
Sizing: Moderate
Primary: Theta decay collection
Invalidation: Spot breaks below $145 support or above $180 resistance.
Confidence:
5 / 10
base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -0.5 spot 3.2% from MP; +0.5 VIX 18

IV Environment

IV Regime
High
IV vs VIX
Avg IV 84.1% vs VIX 18.06 – rich premium.
Favorable?
Yes

Term structure: Near-term ATM IV ~63-67%; put skew (3d put IV 111% vs call 95%); slight contango from 10d.

💰High IV and positive gamma favor premium selling.
⚠️Spot 3.2% below max pain $170; pin may pull up.

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Below

GEX regime: Pinning ($+28.1M)

OI concentrations: Call wall $180-200; put floor $100; no put OI within 30% below spot.

Verdict: Pinning likely near $170 for 5/22 expiry; call wall caps upside.

Premium Opportunities

#1
Iron condor
Sell 2026-06-18 $155.00/$152.00 put wing and $175.00/$176.00 call wing
Profits from low volatility and pinning, leveraging rich premium.
Credit: $1.10-$1.35
Max loss: $1.65
BE: 153.65 / 176.35
Mgmt: Close at 50% max gain or near expiration if pinning holds.
#2
Put credit spread
Sell 2026-06-18 $160.00/$155.00 put spread
Collects credit from bullish bias with support at $155.
Credit: $1.91-$2.34
Max loss: $2.66
BE: $157.66
Mgmt: Exit if spot breaches $155 support.

Risk Alerts

!High IV may contract quickly if vol subsides.
!Spot below max pain; reversal risk if pinning fails.
How to Use These Reports
This theta reflects the market close on May 19, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.