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MSTR

Strategy IncClose $100.77EOD only
Max Pain
$95.00
Next expiry Jul 10, 2026
Expected Move
±$10.70
10.6% from close
Price Gap
-5.77
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
18
Low premium
P/C OI
0.93
Balanced positioning
Consensus
6.5/10
Bearish tilt
Published snapshot: Jul 2, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSTR options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jul 2, 2026 close
MSTR Theta Report
Analysis based on market close May 15, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from May 15, 2026. A newer theta report is available for June 29, 2026.

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Theta Verdict

Attractiveness5 / 10
Sizing: Moderate
Primary: Neutral
Invalidation: Spot breaks $188 resistance or gamma flips positive
Confidence:
4 / 10
base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; -0.5 spot 4.4% from MP; +0.5 VIX 18

IV Environment

IV Regime
High
IV vs VIX
Avg IV 85% vs VIX 18.43, strongly elevated
Favorable?
Yes

Term structure: Front-end put IV 308% shows extreme fear; steep backwardation at front

📊IV 85% well above VIX, favorable for selling, but front-end skew extreme
⚠️Negative dealer gamma -$19.8M and distant put floor $100 amplify tail risk

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Above

GEX regime: Trending ($-19.8M)

OI concentrations: Call OI wall $188-$200; Put floor $100-$100; Max pain $170

Verdict: Spot above max pain, call wall overhead, put floor far; moderate pin risk

Premium Opportunities

#1
Iron condor
Sell 2026-06-18 $170.00/$168.00 put wing and $180.00/$182.00 call wing
Captures high IV premium with defined risk.
Credit: $1.73-$2.12
Max loss: $0.00
BE: 167.88 / 182.12
Mgmt: Monitor spot near $188 invalidation; adjust wings if volatility shifts.

Risk Alerts

!Extreme front-end put IV (308%) signals high tail risk.
!Negative dealer gamma (-$19.8M) increases sensitivity to spot moves.
How to Use These Reports
This theta reflects the market close on May 15, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.