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MSTR

Strategy IncClose $136.08EOD only
Max Pain
$152.50
Next expiry Jun 5, 2026
Expected Move
±$9.60
7.0% from close
Price Gap
+16.42
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
61
High premium
P/C OI
0.93
Balanced positioning
Consensus
6.0/10
Range bias
Published snapshot: Jun 2, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSTR options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 2, 2026 close
MSTR Theta Report
Analysis based on market close April 15, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 15, 2026. A newer theta report is available for May 26, 2026.

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Theta Verdict

Attractiveness7 / 10
Sizing: Moderate
Primary: Sell defined-risk put credit spreads and iron condors around the 135–142 pin cluster
Invalidation: Close persistently below $131.00 (near-term max pain / support)
Confidence:
4.5 / 10
base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 9.6% from MP; +0.5 VIX 18

IV Environment

IV Regime
High
IV vs VIX
ATM IV ~64% (2–16d: 63.5–64.5%) vs VIX 18.17 — IV is structurally very elevated relative to index vols
Favorable?
Yes

Term structure: Front month (2–23d) ATM IV ≈63–68% with higher mid-term skew rising into summer (60s→70s) — rich long-dated vols

💰ATM IV ~64% vs VIX 18.17 — unusually rich absolute IV for premium sellers
⚠️Elevated IV ahead of earnings (2026-04-30) means wide premiums but event risk — avoid naked exposure through the print

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Above

GEX regime: Pinning ($+146.1M)

OI concentrations: Strong call GEX magnets at $142.00 (+$32.3M), $140.00 (+$17.7M), $135.00 (+$13.9M) with additional call OI clusters at $135/$142/$140; max pain for near expirations sits at $131–$135, spot $143.54 is ~9.6% above nearest MP.

Verdict: Favorable — large positive GEX (+$146.1M) and concentrated call OI near $135–$142 create a pinning regime that supports selling defined-risk premium against those strikes, but proximity to MP means watch for downside pin breaks.

Premium Opportunities

#1
Put credit spread
Sell 2026-05-15 $130.00/$110.00 put spread
Uses supportive pinning regime and elevated IV to collect premium with a 20-point protective long put (defined risk).
Credit: $3.32-$4.05
Max loss: $15.95
BE: $125.95
Mgmt: Close at 65% profit; exit on close < $131.00
#2
Iron condor
Sell 2026-05-15 $120.00/$100.00 put wing and $175.00/$200.00 call wing
Sell short strikes outside the core pin band and buy long wings ~20–25 points away for protection; favors range-bound outcome and elevated IV.
Credit: $3.32-$4.06
Max loss: $20.94
BE: 115.94 / 179.06
Mgmt: Take profits at 50–70%; tighten/roll if short wing is touched or price closes beyond $135/$150 bands.

Risk Alerts

!Upcoming earnings 2026-04-30 (15d) — avoid selling naked premium through the earnings print; prefer defined-risk structures or expirations that expire before or well after the print.
!Net premium flow is heavily bearish (-$86.0M) even as GEX is positive — asymmetric directional flow could accelerate moves and widen IV if selling flips to buying.
!Large concentrated GEX at $142/$140/$135 means short strikes in that band can pin but also create short-cover squeezes; manage size and be ready to adjust if price approaches $131 support.
!Unusual heavy call flow at $140/$145 (large volume/OI) increases pin pressure but also raises risk of rapid intraday repricing — avoid tight naked call placements against heavy flow.
!ATM IV elevated (~64%) — while favorable for premium sellers, a rapid IV collapse post-news (IV crush) can change edge; use defined-risk structures or calendars to retain optionality.
How to Use These Reports
This theta reflects the market close on April 15, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.