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MSTR

Strategy IncClose $179.36EOD only
Max Pain
$149.00
Next expiry Apr 24, 2026
Expected Move
±$9.75
5.4% from close
Price Gap
-30.36
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
34
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.82
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.5/10
Range bias
Published snapshot: Apr 22, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSTR options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Apr 22, 2026 close
MSTR Theta Report
Analysis based on market close April 23, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Theta Verdict

Attractiveness4 / 10
Sizing: Conservative
Primary: Short-dated bearish premium sell: sell a 1× put credit spread (example: sell Apr24 155 / buy 150) sized to 1–2% portfolio risk. Entry triggers: ATM IVr >1.6–1.8, bid for spread ≥$0.60, and no major gap risk in quotes. Exits: take 25%–50% premium capture, or close if spot rallies >15% above short strike, or IV collapses to <45%. Add only if delta exposure reduces and liquidity remains firm.
Invalidation: Sustained move >$180 or IV collapse to <40% across near terms
Confidence:
4.5 / 10
base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 15.0% from MP; +0.5 VIX 19

IV Environment

IV Regime
High
IV vs VIX
ATM IV (~60–75%) elevated vs VIX 19; short-dated put IVs extremely wide (puts >> calls)
Favorable?
No

Term structure: Steep short-term skew (24Apr–8May) with elevated calendar IVs; taily long-dated put spikes

⚠️High put skew + mixed flow reduces clean premium-selling edge
📌Max-pain concentrated at $150 near-dates; spot above MP (~15%) so pin risk present

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Above

GEX regime: Pinning ($+144.1M)

OI concentrations: Near-term OI: $150 strikes combined ≈18k contracts across 4/24 & 5/1; $145 ≈7k (5/8); total puts 0–10% OTM ≈30k. No single dominant deep put wall >50k within 30% below spot.

Verdict: Elevated short-term pin risk at $150 driven by concentrated multi-expiry OI; dealers hedge positive GEX by selling/stocking delta near strikes, which mechanically pins price even without one massive put wall.

Premium Opportunities

#1
Call diagonal
Sell 2026-06-18 $184.00 call / buy 2026-07-17 $200.00 call
Expresses carry from rich near-term calls while keeping upside limited with long call
Credit: $0.59-$0.72
Max loss: $0.01
BE: Path-dependent
Mgmt: Take 25–50% premium; close on IV collapse <40% or sustained move >$180
#2
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal
Buy 2026-10-16 $160.00 call + sell 2026-06-18 $170.00 call
Overwrites long LEAP to harvest elevated short-term call IV while keeping long upside exposure
Debit: $19.12-$23.37
Max loss: $23.37
BE: Path-dependent
Mgmt: Roll short calls after 25–50% capture or if stock > short strike; exit if IV collapses or sustained rally >$185
#3
Call diagonal
Sell 2026-06-18 $178.00 call / buy 2026-07-17 $170.00 call
Leverages front skew but increases directional exposure and assignment risk
Debit: $7.13-$8.72
Max loss: $8.72
BE: Path-dependent
Mgmt: Tight stops: close on >15% rally above short strike or if position loss hits plan limit

Risk Alerts

!Short-dated put IV extreme — gap risk on downside moves
!Dealer net premium negative; flows mixed — unpredictable gamma response
!Large call OI wall $185–$200 can cap upside, invalidation if breached
How to Use These Reports
This theta reflects the market close on April 23, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.