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MSTR

Strategy IncClose $137.41EOD only

Max Pain

$130.00

Next expiry Apr 17, 2026

Expected Move

±$7.05

5.1% from close

Price Gap

-7.41

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

0.82

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

5.0/10

Neutral tilt

Published snapshot: Apr 14, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSTR options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Apr 14, 2026 close

MSTR Theta Report

Analysis based on market close April 14, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Theta Verdict

Confidence:

4.5 / 10

base 4.5; +1 strong GEX pinning (+$155.6M); +1 very rich IV (Avg IV 78.1% / ATM ~62%); -1 spot 5.7% above MP; -1 mixed flow/net premium negative

IV Environment

IV Regime

High

IV vs VIX

ATM short-term IV ~61.5%–64.0% vs VIX 18.36 — IV materially elevated relative to broad market

Favorable?

Yes

Term structure: Term structure elevated across the curve (ATM 3d 61.5%, 10d 61.4%, 31d 66.8%) — carry for sellers is large and front‑to‑back is fairly flat but stays rich through May/June

💰Avg IV 78.1% with near-term ATM ~61.5% — strong edge for theta sellers

📈VIX 18.36 is low vs MSTR IV — volatility is idiosyncratic, not broad-market

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Spot $137.41 is above nearest max pain $130 by ~5.7% and between $135 (04/24 MP) and $140 (oi wall).

GEX regime: Pinning (Total GEX +$155.6M; concentrated positive GEX at strikes $135, $140, $142)

Gamma flip: ~$100.00 — Gamma flip near ~$100 — well below spot; if price were to bleach toward $100, dealer dynamics reverse, but that is outside near-term bounds

OI concentrations: Large call OI walls at $135 (47,050), $140 (31,869), $142 (37,999); put OI concentration notable at $100 (26,029) and $130 (8,670). GEX magnets: +$27.5M @135, +$23.2M @142, +$21.1M @140.

Verdict: Favorable — positive GEX pinning and large call/OI walls create magnetic resistance above and a supportive environment for selling defined-risk upside premium; watch downside to $130 support.

Premium Opportunities

call spread

Sell 135/140 call spread 2026-05-15 (31 DTE)

Large call OI and GEX magnet at $135 (47,050 OI; +$27.5M GEX) creates a natural cap; high IV and term-structure give attractive credit for defined-risk upside spreads.

Credit: $1.10-$1.60

Max loss: $3.90

BE: short strike + credit (135 + ~1.10-1.60) => ~136.10-136.60

Mgmt: Take profit at 50–65% of max credit; if underlying prints and closes > short strike (135) on daily basis, consider roll up 1–2 strikes or roll to later cycle for net debit no more than 50% of original credit; cut losses if spread value reaches 60–70% of max loss or underlying closes above long strike (140) by EOD.

cash-secured put (or put spread)

Sell 130 put 2026-05-15 (31 DTE) -- or defined 130/125 put spread if preferred

Max pain/MP pins show $130 for multiple near expirations and EM guardrail 2d lower bound ~$130.36 — selling puts at 130 captures rich premium with dealer pin support and large put OI against downside.

Credit: $3.00-$4.50

Max loss: Unlimited if naked (share purchase); defined put spread max loss ~4.00 (if 130/125 with $5 width)

BE: If naked short: 130 - credit => ~126.50–127.00; If 130/125 spread: worst-case value at 125

Mgmt: Prefer defined 130/125 put spread if unwilling to take assignment. Take profit at 50–70% of credit. Roll down + out if price falls and short is within 1–2% of being ITM; cut losses / close spreads if price closes below $125 on daily basis or spread reaches 60% of max loss.

iron condor

Sell 132/127 put spread + sell 140/145 call spread 2026-05-15 (31 DTE)

Combines supportive put-side (132 short sits near the 130 magnet) with defined upside call spread sold into heavy call OI at 135/140; IV-rich term structure gives wings good premium while defined risk limits tail exposure.

Credit: $1.50-$2.20

Max loss: $3.80

BE: Lower: 132 - credit ≈ ~130.5; Upper: 145 + (?) - credit ≈ ~146.5 (approximate range)

Mgmt: Close at 50% of max credit or if either short strike is touched intra-day; if one side touched, hedge that side or convert to single-side defined spread and reduce position size. If both short strikes breached, close entire structure.

near-week defined call spread

Sell 139/142 call spread 2026-04-24 (10 DTE)

Short-dated defined-risk above spot to harvest elevated front‑dated IV (ATM 10d ~61.4%). Near-term OI / unusual activity shows elevated put flow at 137/139 strikes for 04/17 but call walls at 140/142 next week — selling a tight short-term call spread captures rapid theta with capped risk.

Credit: $0.70-$1.20

Max loss: $2.30

BE: short strike + credit => ~139.70–140.20

Mgmt: Target 60–75% profit quickly (by ~DTE 3–4). Roll out and up if short strike is tested with >50% of premium remaining; cut losses if spread trades >60% of max loss or underlying closes above long strike (142).

calendar (buy back-month sell front-month)

Sell 04-24 140 call vs buy 05-15 140 call (calendar) — debit structure)

High front IV and elevated calendar spread value — selling front-month into rich IV while owning longer-dated call gives a directional, theta-positive position that benefits if price stays near short strike (140) where dealer pinning is present.

Debit: $0.80-$1.80

Max loss: Debit paid (~0.8–1.8)

BE: Calendar exposed to moves; target to keep if front month decays by >60% while back retains value

Mgmt: Plan to close short leg at 50–75% decay or roll short leg forward weekly. Close entire calendar if stock trends >3–4% away from short strike or if realized vol spikes over front IV.

Risk Alerts

!Earnings cluster: upcoming dates 2026-04-30 and 2026-05-05 — earnings are inside the May cycle. Avoid naked short through earnings; close or hedge positions before Apr 30 if they span that window.

!Gamma flip is far below spot (~$100) but large positive GEX (+$155.6M) increases pinning trade — sudden directional flows could unwind that pin quickly if catalysts arrive.

!Unusual activity: concentrated puts at 137/139 (04-17) and elevated OI at 135/140/142 — could see short-term squeeze around these strikes; manage size and prefer defined-risk structures.

!IV concentration: ATM IV is extremely elevated (61%+ near-term, Avg IV 78.1%) — attractive for sellers but also indicates heavy tail-risk; keep wing width and position size conservative.

!Net premium flow negative (-$175.3M) and mixed flow: institutions may be accumulating long-dated puts or executing directional trades; watch broad flow shifts and sudden volume spikes around the 135–142 band.

Read the Theta analysis for MSTR for 2026-04-14. Each report is a market-close snapshot with regime read, key levels, and strategy context that translates options positioning into an actionable setup.