thetaOwl
HomeOptionsMSTRReports

MSTR

Strategy IncClose $158.61EOD only
Max Pain
$155.00
Next expiry Oct 2, 2026
Expected Move
±$11.30
7.1% from close
Price Gap
-3.61
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
10
Low premium
P/C OI
0.85
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.5/10
Bearish tilt
Published snapshot: Sep 25, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSTR options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Sep 25, 2026 close
MSTR Theta Report
Analysis based on market close May 13, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from May 13, 2026. A newer theta report is available for June 29, 2026.

View latest report

Theta Verdict

Attractiveness6 / 10
Sizing: Conservative
Primary: Short premium
Invalidation: Spot breaks below $169 support
Confidence:
5.5 / 10
base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -0.5 spot 4.7% from MP; +1 VIX 18

IV Environment

IV Regime
High
IV vs VIX
IV (83%) is 4.7x VIX (18%)
Favorable?
Yes

Term structure: Front-week elevated, contango favors longer-dated

⚠️Front-week put IV 201% vs call 112% extreme downside fear
📈Contango supports longer-dated premium selling

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Above

GEX regime: Pinning ($+65.4M)

OI concentrations: Max pain $170, call OI wall $188-$200, put floor $100

Verdict: Spot above MP; pinning risk at $170 but resistance at $188-$200

Premium Opportunities

#1
Iron condor
Sell 2026-06-05 $170.00/$167.50 put wing and $180.00/$182.50 call wing
Sell put & call wings to capture theta with bounded risk.
Credit: $1.94-$2.37
Max loss: $0.13
BE: 167.63 / 182.37
Mgmt: Close at 50% max gain or near expiration.
#2
Put credit spread
Sell 2026-06-18 $170.00/$168.00 put spread
Short put spread to collect premium with downside protection.
Credit: $0.79-$0.96
Max loss: $1.04
BE: $169.04
Mgmt: Exit if spot breaches $170.
#3
Call calendar
Sell 2026-06-05 $180.00 call / buy 2026-07-17 $180.00 call
Sell near-term call, buy later call to capture time decay.
Debit: $8.21-$10.04
Max loss: $10.04
BE: Path-dependent
Mgmt: Roll short leg to manage gamma.

Risk Alerts

!Front-week put IV skew extreme - risk of volatility expansion
!Positive GEX ($65.4M) may amplify pinning
How to Use These Reports
This theta reflects the market close on May 13, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.