thetaOwl
HomeOptionsMSTRReports

MSTR

Strategy IncClose $123.97EOD only
Max Pain
$129.00
Next expiry Jun 18, 2026
Expected Move
±$9.62
7.8% from close
Price Gap
+5.03
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
100
High premium
P/C OI
0.95
Balanced positioning
Consensus
6.5/10
Neutral tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 12, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSTR options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 12, 2026 close
MSTR Theta Report
Analysis based on market close June 15, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Theta Verdict

Attractiveness6 / 10
Sizing: Conservative
Primary: Short Put Credit Spread
Invalidation: Spot breaks below $127 (max pain) or above $152 (resistance).
Confidence:
5.5 / 10
base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -0.5 spot 3.3% from MP; +1 VIX 16

IV Environment

IV Regime
High
IV vs VIX
MSTR IV 94.9% vs VIX 16.2 — ratio 5.9x, very elevated.
Favorable?
Yes

Term structure: Front-month put IV 373% indicates extreme fear; ATM IV flattens post-expiry.

📊MSTR IV 94.9% vs VIX 16.2 — 5.9x ratio, rich premium.
⚡Front-month put IV 373% — extreme skew, event risk.
📍Positive dealer gamma $81M near max pain $127.

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Above

GEX regime: Pinning ($+81.2M)

Gamma flip: ~$100.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 23,798 (23.7% below spot)

OI concentrations: Call wall $180, put floor $100; max pain $127 (6/18).

Verdict: Spot above max pain; put OI concentration 23.7% below spot — pin risk to downside near $127.

Premium Opportunities

#1
Put credit spread
Sell 2026-08-21 $120.00/$105.00 put spread
Sell 120/105 put spread exp 8/21, max gain $5.58, loss $9.42.
Credit: $4.57-$5.58
Max loss: $9.42
BE: $114.42
Mgmt: Manage if spot breaks below $127 invalidation.
#2
Put diagonal
Sell 2026-07-24 $120.00 put / buy 2026-08-21 $130.00 put
Sell 7/24 $120 put, buy 8/21 $130 put; variable gain, max loss $9.57.
Debit: $7.83-$9.57
Max loss: $9.57
BE: Path-dependent
Mgmt: Monitor pin risk; adjust if spot approaches $127.
#3
Call diagonal
Sell 2026-07-24 $152.50 call / buy 2026-08-21 $150.00 call
Sell 7/24 $152.5 call, buy 8/21 $150 call; variable gain, max loss $5.36.
Debit: $4.39-$5.36
Max loss: $5.36
BE: Path-dependent
Mgmt: Liquidity risk; exit before earnings if needed. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_call: Volume below 5.

Risk Alerts

!Front-month expiration (6/18) with extreme put IV 373% — binary risk.
!Positive GEX $81M but net short premium -$192M — dealers hedged but vulnerable.
!Spot 3.3% above max pain — potential drift lower.
How to Use These Reports
This theta reflects the market close on June 15, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.