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MSTR

Strategy IncClose $132.25EOD only
Max Pain
$120.00
Next expiry Sep 18, 2026
Expected Move
±$4.20
3.2% from close
Price Gap
-12.25
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
25
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.77
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.5/10
Bearish tilt
Published snapshot: Sep 17, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSTR options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Sep 17, 2026 close
MSTR Theta Report
Analysis based on market close June 18, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from June 18, 2026. A newer theta report is available for June 29, 2026.

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Theta Verdict

Attractiveness7 / 10
Sizing: Conservative
Primary: Covered call
Invalidation: Break below $100 support or above $125 call wall
Confidence:
7 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; -1 spot 8.5% from MP; +1 VIX 16

IV Environment

IV Regime
High
IV vs VIX
Avg IV 111.9% vs VIX 16.4, extremely high premium.
Favorable?
Yes

Term structure: Term structure steep near term but flattens; 0-day IV distorted; ATM IV ~75% for weekly expirations.

⚠️High IV offers rich premiums but short gamma risk elevates.
📊Spot below max pain ($123) and near put floor support.

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Below

GEX regime: Trending ($-64.2M)

Gamma flip: ~$100.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 23,533 (11.1% below spot)

OI concentrations: Call OI wall $125-$135; Put floor $75-$100; Max pain $123

Verdict: Pin risk elevated near expiration due to high OI concentration at $123 max pain; spot at $112.55, below max pain, put-heavy OI below may pin lower.

Premium Opportunities

#1
Iron condor
Sell 2026-07-24 $110.00/$105.00 put wing and $120.00/$122.00 call wing
Sell put spread $110/$105 and call spread $120/$122 to capture elevated implied volatility.
Credit: $2.48-$3.03
Max loss: $1.97
BE: 106.97 / 123.03
Mgmt: Monitor pin risk near expiration; adjust or close if underlying breaks $105 or $122. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_call: Volume below 5.

Risk Alerts

!Negative Gamma
!Spot below max pain
!High IV skew
How to Use These Reports
This theta reflects the market close on June 18, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.