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MSTR

Strategy IncClose $97.74EOD only
Max Pain
$95.00
Next expiry Jul 31, 2026
Expected Move
±$5.12
5.2% from close
Price Gap
-2.74
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
11
Low premium
P/C OI
0.97
Balanced positioning
Consensus
6.5/10
Bearish tilt
Published snapshot: Jul 30, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSTR options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jul 30, 2026 close
MSTR Theta Report
Analysis based on market close June 16, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from June 16, 2026. A newer theta report is available for June 29, 2026.

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Theta Verdict

Attractiveness7 / 10
Sizing: Conservative
Primary: Selling put spreads below support at $108.56
Invalidation: Break below $108.56 or spike above $128
Confidence:
5.5 / 10
base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -0.5 spot 3.3% from MP; +1 VIX 16

IV Environment

IV Regime
High
IV vs VIX
IV at 97.6% vs VIX 16.4, extremely rich premium
Favorable?
Yes

Term structure: Slight contango, front week ATM IV 68%, longer tenors ~80%

📈Avg IV 97.6% vs VIX 16.4, premium very elevated
⚠️Front week put IV 414% vs call 209%, skewed hedging
📌GEX +$47.7M positive, supports near-term stability

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Below

GEX regime: Pinning ($+47.7M)

Gamma flip: ~$100.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 22,468 (18.6% below spot)

OI concentrations: Put OI 22,468 contracts at $100 (18.6% below spot); Call OI wall $130-$180

Verdict: Elevated pin risk: heavy put OI at $100 and max pain $127 in 2 days

Premium Opportunities

#1
Put credit spread
Sell 2026-08-21 $120.00/$115.00 put spread
Sell put spread to capture elevated premium decay with defined risk.
Credit: $2.16-$2.64
Max loss: $2.36
BE: $117.36
Mgmt: Close early near max profit or if spot breaks $108.56.

Risk Alerts

!Spot 3.3% below max pain, sharp move likely to pin
!High put IV skew on front week signals hedging demand
!Gamma flip at $100, support test possible
How to Use These Reports
This theta reflects the market close on June 16, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.