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MSTR

Strategy IncClose $153.92EOD only
Max Pain
$129.00
Next expiry Sep 25, 2026
Expected Move
±$12.15
7.9% from close
Price Gap
-24.92
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
46
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.77
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.5/10
Bearish tilt
Published snapshot: Sep 18, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSTR options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Sep 18, 2026 close
MSTR Theta Report
Analysis based on market close June 22, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from June 22, 2026. A newer theta report is available for June 29, 2026.

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Theta Verdict

Attractiveness5 / 10
Sizing: Moderate
Primary: Credit Spread
Invalidation: Spot breaks support at $94.41
Confidence:
5 / 10
base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 5.6% from MP; +1 VIX 17

IV Environment

IV Regime
High
IV vs VIX
IV 97% vs VIX 17% — extremely elevated
Favorable?
Yes

Term structure: Slight inversion front to 18d, then contango

⚠️Put skew elevated; short puts risky near events
📌Positive GEX pinning at $116; price gravitates

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Below

GEX regime: Pinning ($+240K)

Gamma flip: ~$90.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 15,262 (17.8% below spot)

OI concentrations: Put OI 15.2K at 90 (17.8% below spot); call wall $116-$126

Verdict: Pinning near $116 max pain; support $100-$75; risk if spot breaks $90 gamma flip

Premium Opportunities

#1
Iron condor
Sell 2026-07-31 $105.00/$100.00 put wing and $115.00/$119.00 call wing
Sells OTM put/call wings capturing credit from inflated options.
Credit: $3.19-$3.90
Max loss: $1.10
BE: 101.10 / 118.90
Mgmt: Monitor gamma near support; adjust wings if spot breaks $100. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_call: Open interest below 25.; long_call: Open interest below 25.

Risk Alerts

!Front-week expiry 06/26; gamma pinning likely
!Bearish volume ratio 1.21 and net premium -$213M
How to Use These Reports
This theta reflects the market close on June 22, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.