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MSTR

Strategy IncClose $160.01EOD only
Max Pain
$150.00
Next expiry Oct 9, 2026
Expected Move
±$10.05
6.3% from close
Price Gap
-10.01
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
8
Low premium
P/C OI
0.83
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.5/10
Bearish tilt
Published snapshot: Oct 2, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSTR options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Oct 2, 2026 close
MSTR Theta Report
Analysis based on market close May 22, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from May 22, 2026. A newer theta report is available for June 29, 2026.

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Theta Verdict

Attractiveness6 / 10
Sizing: Conservative
Primary: Iron condor
Invalidation: Spot breach $145 support or VIX above 20
Confidence:
7.5 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; -0.5 spot 4.5% from MP; +1 VIX 17

IV Environment

IV Regime
High
IV vs VIX
Avg IV 85.5% vs VIX 16.7 (5x) - very elevated
Favorable?
Yes

Term structure: Steep contango from 0 DTE (11%) to 7 DTE (52%), then flat; long-dated elevated

📈IV/VIX ratio 5x signals rich premiums
⚠️Term structure steep near term; favor short-dated

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Below

GEX regime: Trending ($-11.8M)

OI concentrations: Call OI wall $170-$200, put floor $100-$100; max pain $168

Verdict: Pin risk elevated near $168; limited put support below

Premium Opportunities

#1
Iron condor
Sell 2026-06-18 $150.00/$148.00 put wing and $170.00/$172.00 call wing
Sell put/call wings near $150/$170 for theta decay
Credit: $1.17-$1.43
Max loss: $0.57
BE: 148.57 / 171.43
Mgmt: Exit at 50% max gain or before earnings
#2
Put credit spread
Sell 2026-06-12 $150.00/$148.00 put spread
Sell $150/$148 put spread for credit
Credit: $0.72-$0.88
Max loss: $1.12
BE: $149.12
Mgmt: Exit at 50% max gain or if spot nears $145 support

Risk Alerts

!Negative gamma ($-11.8M) amplifies spot moves
!Spot below max pain; upside risk if rally to $168
How to Use These Reports
This theta reflects the market close on May 22, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.