thetaOwl
HomeOptionsMSTRReports

MSTR

Strategy IncClose $165.81EOD only
Max Pain
$170.00
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$7.35
4.4% from close
Price Gap
+4.19
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
33
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.90
Balanced positioning
Consensus
6.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSTR options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 20, 2026 close
MSTR Theta Report
Analysis based on market close May 20, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Theta Verdict

Attractiveness6 / 10
Sizing: Conservative
Primary: Short call spreads above $180
Invalidation: Spot breaks above $180 with volume
Confidence:
6 / 10
base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +1 VIX 17

IV Environment

IV Regime
High
IV vs VIX
IV 82.6% vs VIX 17.4, extremely high premium environment.
Favorable?
Yes

Term structure: Near-term put IV elevated (118% at 2d); contango after 1 month. 6/18 outlier put IV 225%.

⚠️Put skew steep; pin risk elevated near $170-$180.

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Below

GEX regime: Pinning ($+22.7M)

OI concentrations: Call wall $180-$200; put floor $100-$100. Max pain $170 (5/22), $175 (5/29), $180 (6/5).

Verdict: High pin risk: spot below max pain, gamma pinning regime, OI concentrations suggest upward drift to $180.

Premium Opportunities

#1
Call credit spread
Sell 2026-06-18 $175.00/$176.00 call spread
Sell 175/176 call spread for defined risk premium.
Credit: $0.32-$0.39
Max loss: $0.61
BE: $175.39
Mgmt: Exit if spot nears $175 or before earnings.
#2
Put credit spread
Sell 2026-06-12 $170.00/$165.00 put spread
Sell 170/165 put spread to collect premium with support.
Credit: $2.54-$3.11
Max loss: $1.89
BE: $166.89
Mgmt: Exit if spot drops below $165 or IV collapses.
#3
Iron condor
Sell 2026-06-12 $165.00/$160.00 put wing and $175.00/$177.50 call wing
Sell put wing 165/160 and call wing 175/177.5.
Credit: $2.54-$3.11
Max loss: $1.89
BE: 161.89 / 178.11
Mgmt: Adjust wings if spot trends; close by 12 June.

Risk Alerts

!Gamma pinning regime increases pin risk near $170-$180 strikes.
!Dealer net short puts (negative premium) may amplify spot support.
!Put skew extreme; tail risk from sudden downside.
How to Use These Reports
This theta reflects the market close on May 20, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.