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MSTR

Strategy IncClose $166.52EOD only

Max Pain

$140.00

Next expiry Apr 24, 2026

Expected Move

±$14.83

8.9% from close

Price Gap

-26.52

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

100

High premium

P/C OI

0.87

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

6.0/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: Apr 17, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSTR options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Apr 17, 2026 close

MSTR Theta Report

Analysis based on market close April 20, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Theta Verdict

Confidence:

7.5 / 10

base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 17.8% from MP; +0.5 VIX 19

IV Environment

IV Regime

High

IV vs VIX

Equities IV elevated vs VIX; MSTR IV >> index VIX

Favorable?

Term structure: Very steep near-term put skew concentrated into listed expiries; elevated short-dated IV increases hedging cost and makes pure premium-selling less attractive

⚠️Heavy short-dated put skew and pinning into 4/24–5/08 expiries increases assignment/hedge risk

📉Elevated near-term IV raises cost of rolling/hedging; consider defined-risk structures

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Above

GEX regime: Pinning ($+97.7M)

OI concentrations: OI peaks at strikes near $145 (4/24), $142 (5/01), $140 (5/08); open interest concentrated at these near-term strikes with limited deep‑OTM put demand below ~30% OTM

Verdict: Pinning regime — concentrated short-dated put OI creates localized pin risk at listed strikes and higher chance of early assignment/volatility around expiries

Premium Opportunities

Put calendar

Sell 2026-05-29 $160.00 put / buy 2026-06-18 $160.00 put

Sell May29 $160 put, buy Jun18 $160 put to harvest rich front premium while retaining downside hedge through post-earnings exposure.

Debit: $2.84-$3.47

Max loss: $3.47

BE: Path-dependent

Mgmt: Close or roll if spot <146.66, IV collapses >25%, or large early assignment flow; take profits into front-month IV decay or near peak value.

Call diagonal

Sell 2026-05-22 $205.00 call / buy 2026-06-18 $176.00 call

Sell May22 $205 call, buy Jun18 $176 call to collect short premium and preserve longer-dated upside.

Debit: $11.61-$14.19

Max loss: $14.19

BE: Path-dependent

Mgmt: Trim/roll if spot >205 early, or close on IV collapse/spot <146.66; monitor assignment risk at expiry.

PMCC / LEAPS diagonal

Buy 2026-10-16 $160.00 call + sell 2026-05-22 $215.00 call

Buy Oct2026 $160 call, sell May22 $215 call to reduce carry vs owning stock while keeping long exposure.

Debit: $33.32-$40.73

Max loss: $40.73

BE: Path-dependent

Mgmt: Manage short calls monthly; exit or convert to stock if assigned or if spot breaks <146.66 or IV collapses.

Risk Alerts

!Large pin expiries 4/24–5/08; spot < $146 invalidates thesis

!Early assignment risk on short puts and attendant margin/borrow costs

!Overnight gap risk and sudden IV collapse or concentrated buy flow into puts (fat-tail) increases loss potential

How to Use These Reports

This theta reflects the market close on April 20, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.