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MSTR

Strategy IncClose $94.85EOD only
Max Pain
$98.00
Next expiry Jul 24, 2026
Expected Move
±$8.45
8.9% from close
Price Gap
+3.15
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
31
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.93
Balanced positioning
Consensus
6.5/10
Bearish tilt
Published snapshot: Jul 17, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSTR options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jul 17, 2026 close
MSTR Theta Report
Analysis based on market close June 4, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from June 4, 2026. A newer theta report is available for June 29, 2026.

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Theta Verdict

Attractiveness7 / 10
Sizing: Moderate
Primary: Iron Condor
Invalidation: Break below $113 support or above $140 resistance
Confidence:
7 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; -1 spot 7.6% from MP; +1 VIX 15

IV Environment

IV Regime
High
IV vs VIX
IV is elevated relative to VIX, indicating rich premium
Favorable?
Yes

Term structure: Front-month elevated, term structure backwardated near-term then flat

📈High IV vs VIX offers attractive premium
⚠️Negative dealer gamma ($-42M) risks sharp moves
⏳Term structure shows elevated near-term IV, especially puts

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Below

GEX regime: Trending ($-42.3M)

Gamma flip: ~$100.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 25,899 (22.7% below spot)

OI concentrations: Max pain $140 (0DTE), $144 (1w), $150 (2w); call wall $155-$180, put floor $95-$100

Verdict: Significant pin risk near $140-$150; dealer positioning suggests drift to max pain

Premium Opportunities

#1
Put credit spread
Sell 2026-08-21 $125.00/$120.00 put spread
Sell $125/$120 put spread to capture rich premium with defined risk.
Credit: $2.30-$2.81
Max loss: $2.19
BE: $122.19
Mgmt: Close at 50% profit or if spot breaks below $113 support.
#2
Iron condor
Sell 2026-08-21 $125.00/$120.00 put wing and $130.00/$135.00 call wing
Sell $125/$120 put and $130/$135 call wings to profit from range-bound move.
Credit: $3.85-$4.70
Max loss: $0.30
BE: 120.30 / 134.70
Mgmt: Close at 50% profit or adjust if spot approaches wings.

Risk Alerts

!Negative gamma exposure ($-42.3M) could amplify moves
!Spot 7.6% below max pain, potential pull higher
!High IV but trending regime may cause whipsaws
How to Use These Reports
This theta reflects the market close on June 4, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.