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MSTR

Strategy IncClose $178.03EOD only
Max Pain
$170.00
Next expiry May 15, 2026
Expected Move
±$8.15
4.6% from close
Price Gap
-8.03
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
49
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.89
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
5.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 13, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSTR options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 13, 2026 close
MSTR Theta Report
Analysis based on market close May 14, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Theta Verdict

Attractiveness8 / 10
Sizing: Aggressive
Primary: Short Puts
Invalidation: Spot breaks below $170 or IV contracts below 60%
Confidence:
8 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 10.0% from MP; +1 VIX 17

IV Environment

IV Regime
High
IV vs VIX
Avg IV 83.94% is 4.9x VIX 17.26, extremely high.
Favorable?
Yes

Term structure: Upward sloping with extreme put skew near term; tail risk priced.

💰Avg IV 83.94% offers rich premiums.
⚠️1d put IV 245.69% indicates fear.
📌Max pain pin $170; spot $186 above.

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Above

GEX regime: Pinning ($+166.0M)

OI concentrations: Call wall $200, put floor $100; max pain $170 (1d), $172 (1w), $175 (2w).

Verdict: Near-term pinning likely at $170; higher pins if bullish momentum continues.

Premium Opportunities

#1
Put credit spread
Sell 2026-07-17 $180.00/$175.00 put spread
Sell $180/$175 put spread to collect elevated premium.
Credit: $2.14-$2.61
Max loss: $2.39
BE: $177.39
Mgmt: Monitor spot below $170; roll if tested.
#2
Call credit spread
Sell 2026-07-17 $190.00/$195.00 call spread
Sell $190/$195 call spread to collect premium with upside cap.
Credit: $1.60-$1.95
Max loss: $3.05
BE: $191.95
Mgmt: Watch spot above $187.5; adjust if momentum shifts.

Risk Alerts

!Spot 9.4% above max pain $170; potential reversion.
!High put skew suggests hedging demand; watch IV collapse.
!1d expiration: large OI at $170 may cause pin.
How to Use These Reports
This theta reflects the market close on May 14, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.