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MSTR

Strategy IncClose $149.78EOD only

Max Pain

$155.00

Next expiry Jun 5, 2026

Expected Move

±$9.93

6.6% from close

Price Gap

+5.22

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

0.92

Balanced positioning

Consensus

6.0/10

Range bias

Published snapshot: Jun 1, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSTR options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 1, 2026 close

MSTR Theta Report

Analysis based on market close April 17, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 17, 2026. A newer theta report is available for May 26, 2026.

View latest report

Theta Verdict

Confidence:

8 / 10

base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 26.2% from MP; +1 VIX 17

IV Environment

IV Regime

High

IV vs VIX

ATM IV extremely elevated vs VIX (ATM ~73–78 vs VIX 17); equity-specific front-end dislocation

Favorable?

Term structure: Very steep short-dated skew with 0d/7d blowups; concentrated expiries (04/17, 04/24, 05/01) create roll/event risk

⚠️Front-week and 0d IV blowups make naked premium-selling high risk—expect gap/overnight tail losses

🛡️If selling premium, require bought protection (wide hedges) and avoid selling into last 48 hours before expiry

📅Concentrated expiries (04/17, 04/24, 05/01) plus scheduled events concentrate short-dated flow and pin risk

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Above

GEX regime: Pinning ($+78.6M)

OI concentrations: Max-pain pins: $132 (04/17), $140 (04/24), $133 (05/01); no large put wall within 30% below spot; structural put-floor near $100

Verdict: High pin risk at $132–$140 around listed expiries; avoid initiating large naked premium sells into these windows and use bought protection for any short-dated exposure

Premium Opportunities

Iron condor

Sell 2026-05-15 $145.00/$135.00 put wing and $185.00/$195.00 call wing

Defined-risk short premium across both wings to collect rich IV after earnings while capping loss.

Credit: $3.88-$4.75

Max loss: $5.25

BE: 140.25 / 189.75

Mgmt: Enter after earnings IV settles; cut or roll if stock closes inside short wing or IV collapses.

Put credit spread

Sell 2026-05-15 $145.00/$135.00 put spread

Sell 145/135 put spread to collect premium while capping loss if post-earnings drop occurs.

Credit: $1.93-$2.35

Max loss: $7.65

BE: $142.65

Mgmt: Size small ahead of expiries; buy protection or close if sustained trade <146.

Put diagonal

Sell 2026-05-08 $145.00 put / buy 2026-06-18 $146.00 put

Short near-month put, long further month to retain vega and reduce assignment/gap risk.

Debit: $5.71-$6.99

Max loss: $6.99

BE: Path-dependent

Mgmt: Monitor roll of short leg into back month if underlying nears short strike or IV normalizes.

Risk Alerts

!End-of-week pin at $132 concentrates flows and can amplify short-dated gamma

!Scheduled expiries (04/17, 04/24, 05/01) and any near-term corporate events increase gap/overnight risk—confirm calendar before selling

!Front-week 0d IV can spike; always size small and use bought hedges or avoid selling into front-week dislocation

How to Use These Reports

This theta reflects the market close on April 17, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.