thetaOwl
HomeOptionsMSTRReports

MSTR

Strategy IncClose $148.94EOD only
Max Pain
$132.00
Next expiry Apr 17, 2026
Expected Move
±$4.83
3.2% from close
Price Gap
-16.94
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
100
High premium
P/C OI
0.83
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
5.0/10
Consensus signal
Published snapshot: Apr 16, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSTR options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Apr 16, 2026 close
MSTR Theta Report
Analysis based on market close April 17, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Theta Verdict

Attractiveness5 / 10
Sizing: Conservative
Primary: Use defined-risk structures (wide iron condor, put spreads) or buy protection before selling premium
Invalidation: Sustained break-and-hold below $132 or abrupt IV compression with sustained selling (VIX spike >25) that removes front-week skew
Confidence:
8 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 26.2% from MP; +1 VIX 17

IV Environment

IV Regime
High
IV vs VIX
ATM IV extremely elevated vs VIX (ATM ~73–78 vs VIX 17); equity-specific front-end dislocation
Favorable?
No

Term structure: Very steep short-dated skew with 0d/7d blowups; concentrated expiries (04/17, 04/24, 05/01) create roll/event risk

⚠️Front-week and 0d IV blowups make naked premium-selling high risk—expect gap/overnight tail losses
🛡️If selling premium, require bought protection (wide hedges) and avoid selling into last 48 hours before expiry
📅Concentrated expiries (04/17, 04/24, 05/01) plus scheduled events concentrate short-dated flow and pin risk

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Above

GEX regime: Pinning ($+78.6M)

OI concentrations: Max-pain pins: $132 (04/17), $140 (04/24), $133 (05/01); no large put wall within 30% below spot; structural put-floor near $100

Verdict: High pin risk at $132–$140 around listed expiries; avoid initiating large naked premium sells into these windows and use bought protection for any short-dated exposure

Premium Opportunities

#1
Iron condor
Sell 2026-05-15 $145.00/$135.00 put wing and $185.00/$195.00 call wing
Defined-risk short premium across both wings to collect rich IV after earnings while capping loss.
Credit: $3.88-$4.75
Max loss: $5.25
BE: 140.25 / 189.75
Mgmt: Enter after earnings IV settles; cut or roll if stock closes inside short wing or IV collapses.
#2
Put credit spread
Sell 2026-05-15 $145.00/$135.00 put spread
Sell 145/135 put spread to collect premium while capping loss if post-earnings drop occurs.
Credit: $1.93-$2.35
Max loss: $7.65
BE: $142.65
Mgmt: Size small ahead of expiries; buy protection or close if sustained trade <146.
#3
Put diagonal
Sell 2026-05-08 $145.00 put / buy 2026-06-18 $146.00 put
Short near-month put, long further month to retain vega and reduce assignment/gap risk.
Debit: $5.71-$6.99
Max loss: $6.99
BE: Path-dependent
Mgmt: Monitor roll of short leg into back month if underlying nears short strike or IV normalizes.

Risk Alerts

!End-of-week pin at $132 concentrates flows and can amplify short-dated gamma
!Scheduled expiries (04/17, 04/24, 05/01) and any near-term corporate events increase gap/overnight risk—confirm calendar before selling
!Front-week 0d IV can spike; always size small and use bought hedges or avoid selling into front-week dislocation

Read the Theta analysis for MSTR for 2026-04-17. Each report is a market-close snapshot with regime read, key levels, and strategy context that translates options positioning into an actionable setup.