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MSTR

Strategy IncClose $120.44EOD only
Max Pain
$136.00
Next expiry Jun 12, 2026
Expected Move
±$12.75
10.6% from close
Price Gap
+15.56
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
94
High premium
P/C OI
0.96
Balanced positioning
Consensus
7.0/10
Bearish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 5, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSTR options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 5, 2026 close
MSTR Theta Report
Analysis based on market close April 22, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 22, 2026. A newer theta report is available for June 5, 2026.

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Theta Verdict

Attractiveness7 / 10
Sizing: Moderate
Primary: Short-dated put-credit spreads (sell OTM puts, buy lower protection) sized conservatively with strict hedge triggers
Invalidation: Sustained IV collapse >25 pts or dealer GEX flipping materially negative; spot breaking above $200 resistance
Confidence:
7.5 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 20.4% from MP; +0.5 VIX 19

IV Environment

IV Regime
High
IV vs VIX
Equity IV materially elevated vs VIX (avg IV ~86 vs VIX ~19)
Favorable?
No

Term structure: Front-week puts extremely bid (2d put IV 203%) with steep skew into short-dates; mid-dates rich, longer-term mean-reverting

⚠️Pinning gamma with short-dated put skew centered near $145–$149
🛡️If selling premium, require defined protection (buy lower put) and position caps—do not naked-sell into >200% IV
📈Dealer net GEX +$117.5M and positive net premium—flow supportive but fragile given concentrated OI

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Above

GEX regime: Pinning ($+117.5M)

OI concentrations: Max-pain pins at $149 (4/24) and $145 (5/1,5/8); no gamma flip below spot within 30%

Verdict: Elevated short-dated pin risk around $145–$149; expirations through 5/08 most likely to anchor spot

Premium Opportunities

#1
Call diagonal
Sell 2026-05-29 $220.00 call / buy 2026-06-18 $205.00 call
Sell May 29 $220 call, buy Jun 18 $205 call to collect rich short leg premium and keep convexity/limited loss from long back month call.
Debit: $5.96-$7.29
Max loss: $7.29
BE: Path-dependent
Mgmt: Trim or buy back short leg if IV collapses >25 pts or spot rallies toward $200; roll out or close before post‑earnings gap if exposure becomes directional.

Risk Alerts

!Sharp front-week put repricing (puts >200% IV) can spike losses
!Rapid dealer unwind/GEX reversal increases directional gamma exposure
!Spot rally into $200 call OI wall could invalidate short-premium biases
How to Use These Reports
This theta reflects the market close on April 22, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.