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MSTR

Strategy IncClose $170.81EOD only

Max Pain

$145.00

Next expiry Apr 24, 2026

Expected Move

±$12.62

7.4% from close

Price Gap

-25.81

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

0.80

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

6.5/10

Range bias

Published snapshot: Apr 20, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSTR options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Apr 20, 2026 close

MSTR Theta Report

Analysis based on market close April 21, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Theta Verdict

Confidence:

4.5 / 10

base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 12.3% from MP; +0.5 VIX 20

IV Environment

IV Regime

High

IV vs VIX

Underlying IV (~85) far above VIX (~19.5) — idiosyncratic/stock-specific stress from upcoming corporate events

Favorable?

Yes

Term structure: Front-week puts extreme (IV ~165) — selling not advised there; mid-dated 30–90d IV elevated and more favorable for credit; long-dated flattens

⚠️Upcoming earnings/corporate events and thin post-earnings liquidity raise tail risk

🧩Prefer selling 30–90d credit structures (spreads, iron condors) — avoid front-week naked short puts

💧Borrow scarcity/short-squeeze and low depth can spike fills and margin — factor liquidity risk into sizing

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Above

GEX regime: Pinning ($+115.4M)

OI concentrations: Max-pain pins at $142–146; concentrated call OI $175–200; limited gamma flip below spot

Verdict: Moderate pin risk near $142–146; dealer GEX positive (~+$115M) may support pinning but liquidity/borrow constraints can amplify moves

Premium Opportunities

Put credit spread

Sell 2026-05-15 $140.00/$135.00 put spread

Collect ~0.81–0.98; favorable risk/reward given IV~85 and premium-selling edge; invalidates if spot <141.35.

Credit: $0.81-$0.98

Max loss: $4.02

BE: $139.02

Mgmt: Enter near top of range, trim/roll wider or out DTE if spot nears 141.35 or IV collapses.

Iron condor

Sell 2026-05-22 $141.00/$138.00 put wing and $165.00/$175.00 call wing

Higher credit (~4.09–5.0) but symmetric loss; less liquid wing raises execution risk.

Credit: $4.09-$5.00

Max loss: $5.00

BE: 136.00 / 170.00

Mgmt: Keep size small, use legging/rolls if one wing breaches; avoid into front-week. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_put: Open interest below 25.; long_put: Volume below 5.

Cash-secured put

Sell 2026-05-22 $141.00 cash-secured put

Collect ~4.5–5.5; simple bullish income trade but exposed to sharp squeezes and borrow/earnings moves.

Credit: $4.50-$5.50

Max loss: $135.50

BE: $135.50

Mgmt: Use smaller position, set buyback triggers, avoid before earnings; convert to spread if threatened. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_put: Open interest below 25.

Risk Alerts

!Front-week put IV spike raises short-tail loss risk

!Upcoming earnings / corporate events increase tail volatility and liquidity risk

!Borrow scarcity / short-squeeze potential can create execution and margin stress

!Spot >~$175 or <~$141 invalidates current edge

!Rapid IV collapse (>15 pts) or VIX<12 reduces attractiveness

How to Use These Reports

This theta reflects the market close on April 21, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.