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MSTR

Strategy IncClose $144.82EOD only
Max Pain
$120.00
Next expiry Sep 4, 2026
Expected Move
±$6.33
4.4% from close
Price Gap
-24.82
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
12
Low premium
P/C OI
0.82
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.5/10
Bearish tilt
Published snapshot: Sep 3, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSTR options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Sep 3, 2026 close
MSTR Theta Report
Analysis based on market close June 5, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from June 5, 2026. A newer theta report is available for June 29, 2026.

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Theta Verdict

Attractiveness6 / 10
Sizing: Conservative
Primary: Short premium
Invalidation: Spot breaks below 103.84 support
Confidence:
6.5 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; -1 spot 13.4% from MP; +0.5 VIX 22

IV Environment

IV Regime
High
IV vs VIX
IV at 111.6% vs VIX 21.5 — extremely elevated
Favorable?
Yes

Term structure: Front-end backwardated with extreme OTM skew; 0DTE call IV 226%, put 171%. Flattens after 7 days.

📈High IV regime supports premium selling but bearish flow demands caution.
📊Negative dealer gamma and net premium pressure short positions.

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Below

GEX regime: Trending ($-72.4M)

Gamma flip: ~$100.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 24,832 (17.0% below spot)

OI concentrations: Call wall $130-$180; put floor $95-$100; gamma flip $100. Max pain $139 (0DTE), $136 (1w), $146 (2w).

Verdict: Spot $126 between max pain levels; pin risk elevated near $139 and $100.

Premium Opportunities

#1
Short strangle
Sell 2026-07-17 $115.00 put + sell $130.00 call
Sell put and call to capture IV crush.
Credit: $18.83-$23.02
Max loss: Unlimited
BE: 91.98 / 153.02
Mgmt: Close at 50% max gain or before earnings.
#2
Put credit spread
Sell 2026-07-17 $120.00/$115.00 put spread
Bullish put spread leveraging rich IV.
Credit: $2.07-$2.53
Max loss: $2.47
BE: $117.47
Mgmt: Close at 50% profit or adjust if support breaks.

Risk Alerts

!Bearish flow and negative dealer gamma increase downside risk.
!Extreme IV skew in front month magnifies vega risk.
How to Use These Reports
This theta reflects the market close on June 5, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.