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MSTR

Strategy IncClose $136.83EOD only

Max Pain

$152.50

Next expiry Oct 23, 2026

Expected Move

±$11.15

8.2% from close

Price Gap

+15.67

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

0.86

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

6.5/10

Bearish tilt

Published snapshot: Oct 16, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSTR options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Oct 16, 2026 close

MSTR Theta Report

Analysis based on market close June 5, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from June 5, 2026. A newer theta report is available for June 29, 2026.

View latest report

Theta Verdict

Confidence:

6.5 / 10

base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; -1 spot 13.4% from MP; +0.5 VIX 22

IV Environment

IV Regime

High

IV vs VIX

IV at 111.6% vs VIX 21.5 — extremely elevated

Favorable?

Yes

Term structure: Front-end backwardated with extreme OTM skew; 0DTE call IV 226%, put 171%. Flattens after 7 days.

📈High IV regime supports premium selling but bearish flow demands caution.

📊Negative dealer gamma and net premium pressure short positions.

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Below

GEX regime: Trending ($-72.4M)

Gamma flip: ~$100.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 24,832 (17.0% below spot)

OI concentrations: Call wall $130-$180; put floor $95-$100; gamma flip $100. Max pain $139 (0DTE), $136 (1w), $146 (2w).

Verdict: Spot $126 between max pain levels; pin risk elevated near $139 and $100.

Premium Opportunities

Short strangle

Sell 2026-07-17 $115.00 put + sell $130.00 call

Sell put and call to capture IV crush.

Credit: $18.83-$23.02

Max loss: Unlimited

BE: 91.98 / 153.02

Mgmt: Close at 50% max gain or before earnings.

Put credit spread

Sell 2026-07-17 $120.00/$115.00 put spread

Bullish put spread leveraging rich IV.

Credit: $2.07-$2.53

Max loss: $2.47

BE: $117.47

Mgmt: Close at 50% profit or adjust if support breaks.

Risk Alerts

!Bearish flow and negative dealer gamma increase downside risk.

!Extreme IV skew in front month magnifies vega risk.

How to Use These Reports

This theta reflects the market close on June 5, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.