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MSTR

Strategy IncClose $123.97EOD only
Max Pain
$129.00
Next expiry Jun 18, 2026
Expected Move
±$9.62
7.8% from close
Price Gap
+5.03
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
100
High premium
P/C OI
0.95
Balanced positioning
Consensus
6.5/10
Neutral tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 12, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSTR options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 12, 2026 close
MSTR Theta Report
Analysis based on market close June 12, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Theta Verdict

Attractiveness7 / 10
Sizing: Moderate
Primary: Credit spread
Invalidation: Spot breaks gamma flip at $100 or resistance at $132
Confidence:
6 / 10
base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +1 VIX 18

IV Environment

IV Regime
High
IV vs VIX
IV avg 100% vs VIX 17.68, elevated
Favorable?
Yes

Term structure: Extreme put skew near-term; overall IV high across tenors

⚠️Max pain pin at $121 weekly; OI concentrated at $100-$180
📈IV above 100% offers premium selling opportunity but watch pin risk

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Above

GEX regime: Pinning ($+104.0M)

Gamma flip: ~$100.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 22,695 (19.3% below spot)

OI concentrations: Put floor $100, call wall $132-$180, max pain $121 weekly

Verdict: Dealers net short premium; pin risk elevated near $121. Break below $100 or above $132 invalidates.

Premium Opportunities

#1
Put credit spread
Sell 2026-07-10 $115.00/$105.00 put spread
Sell $115/$105 put spread for ~$3.19 credit; limited risk, high probability of profit.
Credit: $2.61-$3.19
Max loss: $6.81
BE: $111.81
Mgmt: Exit if MSTR breaks below $121 invalidation or take profit at 50% of max gain.
#2
Short strangle
Sell 2026-08-21 $100.00 put + sell $170.00 call
Sell $100 put and $170 call for ~$12.62 credit; bet on range-bound action.
Credit: $10.33-$12.62
Max loss: Unlimited
BE: 87.38 / 182.62
Mgmt: Set stop-loss or hedge if spot moves beyond $100-$170; consider rolling before earnings.

Risk Alerts

!High put skew implies tail risk; consider downside hedge.
How to Use These Reports
This theta reflects the market close on June 12, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.