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MSTR

Strategy IncClose $98.65EOD only
Max Pain
$95.00
Next expiry Jul 31, 2026
Expected Move
±$8.07
8.2% from close
Price Gap
-3.65
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
7
Low premium
P/C OI
0.96
Balanced positioning
Consensus
6.5/10
Bearish tilt
Published snapshot: Jul 27, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSTR options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jul 27, 2026 close
MSTR Theta Report
Analysis based on market close June 11, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from June 11, 2026. A newer theta report is available for June 29, 2026.

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Theta Verdict

Attractiveness6 / 10
Sizing: Conservative
Primary: Short put credit spread
Invalidation: Spot < 100 or > 150
Confidence:
5.5 / 10
base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +0.5 VIX 19

IV Environment

IV Regime
High
IV vs VIX
IV avg 103% vs VIX 19 (~19%), high skew
Favorable?
Yes

Term structure: Near-term put IV (207%) far exceeds calls; back month IV near 80%

⚠️Put skew at 1DTE extreme (207%), risky for naked puts
📈High IV across all expirations, premium rich

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Below

GEX regime: Pinning ($+4.5M)

Gamma flip: ~$100.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 22,042 (16.8% below spot)

OI concentrations: Put floor $100 (22k OI); call wall $130-$180

Verdict: Max pain $123 (6/12) and $133 (6/18) suggest pinning near broken-wing region

Premium Opportunities

#1
Iron condor
Sell 2026-07-17 $110.00/$100.00 put wing and $140.00/$150.00 call wing
Non-directional theta play exploiting elevated IV and limited expected move.
Credit: $4.14-$5.05
Max loss: $4.95
BE: 104.95 / 145.05
Mgmt: Adjust wings if spot breaches 115 or 135; close at 50% profit.
#2
Put credit spread
Sell 2026-07-10 $105.00/$100.00 put spread
Bullish theta decay on implied support near 115.
Credit: $0.97-$1.19
Max loss: $3.81
BE: $103.81
Mgmt: Roll down if spot breaks below 105; exit at 75% max gain.

Risk Alerts

!Negative net dealer premium indicates short call exposure
!High volatility regime with mixed flows increases whipsaw risk
How to Use These Reports
This theta reflects the market close on June 11, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.