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MSTR

Strategy IncClose $136.52EOD only
Max Pain
$130.00
Next expiry Sep 11, 2026
Expected Move
±$8.82
6.5% from close
Price Gap
-6.52
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
11
Low premium
P/C OI
0.79
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.5/10
Bearish tilt
Published snapshot: Sep 8, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSTR options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Sep 8, 2026 close
MSTR Theta Report
Analysis based on market close June 10, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from June 10, 2026. A newer theta report is available for June 29, 2026.

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Theta Verdict

Attractiveness4 / 10
Sizing: Conservative
Primary: N/A
Invalidation: Spot breaks below $100 gamma flip
Confidence:
6 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; -1 spot 7.7% from MP

IV Environment

IV Regime
High
IV vs VIX
Avg IV 105% vs VIX 22.2 = 473% of VIX
Favorable?
No

Term structure: Steep put skew near-term (170% IV on 2d), structure flat but elevated across tenors.

⚠️Near-term put skew extreme (>170% IV) signals crash premium.
📉Dealer GEX -$30.6M amplifies spot moves in direction of flow.

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Below

GEX regime: Trending ($-30.6M)

Gamma flip: ~$100.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 23,573 (13.3% below spot)

OI concentrations: Put OI 13.3% below spot at $100 (23.5K); Call OI wall $125-$144.

Verdict: Elevated pin risk near weekly expirations (6/12, 6/18, 6/26) with max pain at $125, $140, $150.

Premium Opportunities

#1
Put credit spread
Sell 2026-07-02 $100.00/$95.00 put spread
Sell OTM put spread to collect elevated premium while capping downside risk.
Credit: $0.83-$1.01
Max loss: $3.99
BE: $98.99
Mgmt: Exit if spot breaks below $100 or if IV collapses significantly.
#2
Call calendar
Sell 2026-07-02 $125.00 call / buy 2026-08-21 $125.00 call
Sell near-term call, buy longer-term call to profit from time decay and volatility term structure.
Debit: $6.86-$8.39
Max loss: $8.39
BE: Path-dependent
Mgmt: Adjust or close if spot moves near $125 before short expiration.

Risk Alerts

!High IV may collapse if vol regime shifts.
!Negative GEX increases crash risk.
!Spot below max pain may pin lower.
How to Use These Reports
This theta reflects the market close on June 10, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.