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MSTR

Strategy IncClose $145.80EOD only
Max Pain
$142.00
Next expiry Oct 23, 2026
Expected Move
±$5.36
3.7% from close
Price Gap
-3.80
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
5
Low premium
P/C OI
0.87
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.5/10
Bearish tilt
Published snapshot: Oct 22, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSTR options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Oct 22, 2026 close
MSTR Theta Report
Analysis based on market close June 9, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from June 9, 2026. A newer theta report is available for June 29, 2026.

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Theta Verdict

Attractiveness7 / 10
Sizing: Moderate
Primary: Iron condors
Invalidation: Spot closes above $125 or below $100
Confidence:
6.5 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; -1 spot 6.4% from MP; +0.5 VIX 20

IV Environment

IV Regime
High
IV vs VIX
IV 105.7% vs VIX 19.9; extremely elevated
Favorable?
Yes

Term structure: Front-end backwardation, mid-term contango; overall elevated

⚠️Put IV 162.88 vs call 123.94 for 3-day expiry; strong bearish sentiment
📉GEX -$10.8M; dealer short gamma amplifies moves

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Below

GEX regime: Trending ($-10.8M)

Gamma flip: ~$100.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 23,128 (14.5% below spot)

OI concentrations: Call wall $125-$144; put floor $100; max pain $125, $140, $155

Verdict: Spot ~$117 below $125 max pain; pin risk at weekly $125 and monthly $140

Premium Opportunities

Risk Alerts

!Bearish flow and negative GEX increase risk of large moves.
!High put skew suggests hedging demand may persist.
How to Use These Reports
This theta reflects the market close on June 9, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.