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MSTR

Strategy IncClose $153.48EOD only
Max Pain
$141.00
Next expiry Oct 23, 2026
Expected Move
±$7.04
4.6% from close
Price Gap
-12.48
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
4
Low premium
P/C OI
0.85
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.5/10
Bearish tilt
Published snapshot: Oct 21, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSTR options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Oct 21, 2026 close
MSTR Theta Report
Analysis based on market close June 8, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from June 8, 2026. A newer theta report is available for June 29, 2026.

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Theta Verdict

Attractiveness6 / 10
Sizing: Conservative
Primary: Sell bear call spreads above $136
Invalidation: Spot breaks above $136 or below $109.72
Confidence:
6 / 10
base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +0.5 spot 1.8% from MP; +0.5 VIX 19

IV Environment

IV Regime
High
IV vs VIX
IV ~99% vs VIX 19, ~5x elevated
Favorable?
No

Term structure: Near-term IV elevated (81.75), mid-term dips then rises; mixed skew

📈Front-month put IV 158% vs call 109%, heavy put skew
⚠️Max pain pins at $125, $143, $160 elevate pin risk

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Above

GEX regime: Pinning ($+34.7M)

Gamma flip: ~$100.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 25,552 (21.4% below spot)

OI concentrations: Put OI 25.6K (21.4% below spot); call OI wall $136-$180

Verdict: Elevated pin risk due to gamma pinning and OI concentrations near max pain

Premium Opportunities

#1
Call credit spread
Sell 2026-08-21 $165.00/$175.00 call spread
Sell $165/$175 call spread to profit from theta decay and IV crush.
Credit: $1.39-$1.70
Max loss: $8.30
BE: $166.70
Mgmt: Close at 50% max gain or if spot nears short strike on IV spike.

Risk Alerts

!High IV relative to VIX may lead to IV crush
!Gamma pinning increases assignment risk near max pain strikes
!Mixed dealer flow complicates directional bets
How to Use These Reports
This theta reflects the market close on June 8, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.