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MSTR

Strategy IncClose $165.81EOD only

Max Pain

$170.00

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$7.35

4.4% from close

Price Gap

+4.19

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

0.90

Balanced positioning

Consensus

6.5/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSTR options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 20, 2026 close

MSTR Theta Report

Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from March 31, 2026. A newer theta report is available for May 20, 2026.

View latest report

Theta Verdict

Confidence:

7 / 10

base 5; +2 high IV; +1 strong pinning; -1 extreme volatility; +0 earnings distant

IV Environment

IV Regime

Extremely High

IV vs VIX

IV 84% — extremely elevated

Favorable?

Yes

Term structure: Steep upward slope from 59% (2d) to 80% (353d)

💰Extreme IV (>80%) provides massive premium for sellers

⚠️IV term structure is steep — prefer shorter DTE to avoid long-dated vol risk

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Below max pain by 8.9% (spot $124.80 vs MP $137)

GEX regime: Strong Pinning (GEX +$50.1M — mean-reverting)

Gamma flip: ~$5.00 — Extremely low gamma flip at ~$5 due to massive $5 put OI (26K+) — pinning force is strong above this level

OI concentrations: Major call walls: $135 (33K OI), $140 (33K OI). Major put walls: $5 (26K OI), $100 (23K OI).

Verdict: Highly favorable — massive positive GEX and OI concentrations create strong magnetic pinning, ideal for credit strategies

Premium Opportunities

put credit spread

Sell $100/$95 put spread 2026-04-17 (17 DTE)

Defined risk below major $100 put OI wall (23K+). Strong pinning regime supports staying above support. High IV provides excellent credit for 17 DTE. 21% OTM provides 2.4x the expected move buffer.

Credit: $0.85-$1.10

Max loss: $4.15

BE: $99.15

Mgmt: Close at 65% max profit. Exit if spot closes below $105. Roll down/out if $100 tested but not breached.

iron condor

Sell $110/$105P x $140/$145C 2026-04-24 (24 DTE)

Capitalizes on pinning between major OI levels ($100P wall, $135/$140C walls). Wide $35 wings provide 14% buffer each way. High IV yields >2:1 credit/risk ratio. 24 DTE optimal for theta decay.

Credit: $2.00-$2.60

Max loss: $3.00

BE: 108.00/147.00

Mgmt: Close at 50% max profit. Manage wings independently — roll tested side out 2 weeks. Exit entire position if spot breaches $108 or $142.

cash-secured put

Sell $115 put 2026-05-01 (31 DTE)

For capital-secure sellers willing to own MSTR. 8% below spot, below gamma flip, and above major $100 support. Extreme IV provides ~9% premium for 31 DTE (109% annualized).

Credit: $8.50-$10.50

Max loss: $106.50

BE: $106.50

Mgmt: Roll down/out at 21 DTE if ITM. Close at 70% profit. Accept assignment below $115 only if bullish long-term.

call credit spread

Sell $140/$145 call spread 2026-04-10 (10 DTE)

Targets major call wall at $140 (33K OI). Spot 12% below strike. High IV in short expiry provides accelerated decay. Defined risk with positive GEX pinning upward moves.

Credit: $0.65-$0.85

Max loss: $4.35

BE: $140.65

Mgmt: Close at 80% profit (fast decay). Exit if spot closes above $135. Do not hold through 4/10 expiration if near strike.

Risk Alerts

!Extreme volatility (IV 84%) — position size must account for larger-than-normal price swings

!Massive negative premium flow (-$399M net) suggests institutional put buying — monitor for directional pressure

!Unusual activity in far OTM puts ($160-$210, 2-17 DTE) indicates tail risk hedging — respect wings

!Earnings estimated 4/30/2026 (~30 days out) — avoid selling naked options beyond 4/17 expiration

!Gamma flip at ~$5 is extremely low — pinning force is strong but breakdown below $100 could be violent

!P/C volume ratio 0.56 shows more call volume — could indicate short-term bullish sentiment against put flow

How to Use These Reports

This theta reflects the market close on March 31, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.