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MSTR

Strategy IncClose $85.33EOD only
Max Pain
$111.00
Next expiry Jun 26, 2026
Expected Move
±$5.08
6.0% from close
Price Gap
+25.67
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
23
Low premium
P/C OI
1.00
Balanced positioning
Consensus
8.0/10
Bearish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 25, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSTR options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 25, 2026 close
MSTR Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close June 26, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

Bearish setup, high IV, heavy put flow. Historical beat rate 20% suggests downside risk.

Confidence:
6.5 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; -1 spot 19.3% from MP; +0.5 VIX 18
Most important: Implied moves large; 6d ±11.3%. Spot 19% below max pain, gamma negative.
🐻Put/call volume ratio 2.2x; deepest OTM puts active.
⚠️Historical beat rate 20% suggests high disappointment risk.
📉Spot 19% below max pain; gamma negative at $80 flip.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Trending
Flow Regime
Bearish
Spot vs MP
Below
Gamma flip: ~$80.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 15,854 (2.8% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-30 (34 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-07-02 (6d): ±$9.27 (11.3%)
  • 2026-07-10 (14d): ±$13.38 (16.2%)
  • 2026-07-17 (21d): ±$16.02 (19.5%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Steep contango: 6d IV ~97%, 14d ~114%, 21d ~128%. Elevated across expirations.

Crush estimate: Expected 40-60% IV drop post-earnings (Jul 30).

Skew: Put skew elevated; deep OTM puts (e.g., $30) trading IV >250%.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 20% (1/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Not available; beat rate 20% implies frequent misses.

Directional bias: Bearish; 4 of 5 quarters missed estimates.

Key Levels

1$80.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 1w $73.03/$91.58
3Max pain pins: $102 (2026-06-26); $104 (2026-07-02); $110 (2026-07-10)

Flow Highlights

Heavy put buying in 7/2 $30 and $35 puts (vol/OI >7).

Bearish tail risk hedging; extreme downside speculation.

Unusual call volume in 7/2 $85 and $90 calls despite bearish flow.

Potential squeeze positioning or vol arbitrage.

Strategies

Put calendar
Sell 2026-07-24 $80.00 put / buy 2026-07-31 $80.00 put
Debit: $0.74-$0.91
Max loss: $0.91
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Exit if spot breaks $80 invalidation; target 50% max gain.
Only eligible candidate; exploit steep contango and bearish bias.
Outperforms: Short-dated put sale funds longer-dated put; gains from IV crush and time decay.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Severe IV crush post-earnings (30-50% drop).
!BTC correlation adds exogenous downside risk.
!Spot below gamma flip ($80) and max pain ($102).

What to Watch

?Price reaction at support $80 (put floor).
?BTC price action as MSTR proxy.
?Open interest changes in deep OTM puts ($30, $35).
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on June 26, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.