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MSTR

Strategy IncClose $112.53EOD only
Max Pain
$126.00
Next expiry Jun 26, 2026
Expected Move
±$10.33
9.2% from close
Price Gap
+13.47
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
100
High premium
P/C OI
0.96
Balanced positioning
Consensus
6.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 18, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSTR options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 18, 2026 close
MSTR Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close June 22, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

MSTR earnings 38d away, IV high, bearish flow, low beat rate (20%), max pain pinning $116.

Confidence:
5 / 10
base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 5.6% from MP; +1 VIX 17
Most important: Low beat rate & bearish flow signal downside risk despite gamma pinning.
📉20% beat rate (1/5 quarters)
🛡️Max pain $116 pinning near-term
🔴Net premium -$213M, put/call vol ratio 1.21
⚡Unusual 7/2 110C call buy (10.5x vol/OI)

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Bearish
Spot vs MP
Below
Gamma flip: ~$90.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 15,262 (17.8% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-30 (38 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-06-26 (4d): ±$8.25 (7.5%)
  • 2026-07-02 (10d): ±$11.77 (10.8%)
  • 2026-07-10 (18d): ±$15.05 (13.7%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Upward sloping, 4d to 18d ±7.5% to ±13.7%

Crush estimate: Post-event crush est. 60-70% but distant

Skew: Put skew elevated; heavy near-term put buying at 118/117

Historical Context

Beat rate: 20% (1/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Not available; only 1/5 quarters beat

Directional bias: Bearish given flow and low beat rate

Key Levels

1$90.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 1w $97.68/$121.23
3Max pain pins: $116 (2026-06-26); $135 (2026-07-02); $135 (2026-07-10)

Flow Highlights

Unusual 7/2 110C: vol/OI 10.5x, 2,506 vol

Bullish bet on upside post-earnings

Heavy 6/26 puts at 118P & 117P: 2,652 & 1,808 vol

Near-term bearish hedging or directional short

Strategies

Bear Put Spread
Buy 2026-07-31 $100.00/$85.00 put spread
Debit: $3.56-$4.35
Max loss: $4.35
Max gain: $10.65
BE: $95.65
Trigger: Exit if Bitcoin rallies above $116.
Low beat rate and bearish flow signal downside risk.
Outperforms: Buy $100/$85 put spread to profit from downside beyond max pain $116.
Underperforms: Trade above resistance weakens downside thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Low historical beat rate (20%)
!Bearish flow & negative net premium (-$213M)
!Spot below max pain suggests downward pressure
!High IV may compress unexpectedly

What to Watch

?Bitcoin price action (MSTR correlation)
?Spot relative to max pain $116 (6/26) and $135 (7/2)
?Further unusual activity in 7/2 and 7/10 expiries
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on June 22, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.