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MSTR

Strategy IncClose $131.14EOD only
Max Pain
$127.00
Next expiry Jun 18, 2026
Expected Move
±$7.97
6.1% from close
Price Gap
-4.14
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
100
High premium
P/C OI
0.94
Balanced positioning
Consensus
5.5/10
Consensus signal
Published snapshot: Jun 15, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSTR options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 15, 2026 close
MSTR Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close June 16, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

MSTR 44d from earnings; high IV, mixed flow with bearish net premium but bullish call activity low historical beat rate (20%). SPY/QQQ weak. Gamma pinning at $127 and put floor $100.

Confidence:
5.5 / 10
base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -0.5 spot 3.3% from MP; +1 VIX 16
Most important: Gamma flip at $100; call wall $130-$180; big put buys at $112 and $90 signal hedging.
⚠️Large OTM put 90 vol 8.9x OI suggests deep downside hedging
📈Call buying at 126-138 on 6/18 shows short-term bullish speculation
🔮Gamma flip at $100: break could trigger acceleration

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
Below
Gamma flip: ~$100.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 22,468 (18.6% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-30 (44 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-06-18 (2d): ±$6.07 (4.9%)
  • 2026-06-26 (10d): ±$11.30 (9.2%)
  • 2026-07-02 (16d): ±$14.25 (11.6%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Steep contango; near-term IV high (4.9% for 2d), longer-dated lower (11.6% for 16d) with event premium built in.

Crush estimate: Significant post-earnings crush expected, but event far; near-term IV may stay elevated.

Skew: Put skew elevated from OTM put buying; call wall $130-$180 supports upside skew.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 20% (1/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Limited data (5Q); avg move roughly in line with embedded move but high variance.

Directional bias: Bearish tilt (20% beat rate) but small sample.

Key Levels

1$100.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 2d $116.73/$128.88; 1w $111.51/$134.11
3Max pain pins: $127 (2026-06-18); $140 (2026-06-26); $150 (2026-07-02)

Flow Highlights

Unusual $112 put 6/26 vol 9.8x OI

Bearish hedge or directional bet below $112.

Unusual $90 put 11/20 vol 8.9x OI

Long-term downside protection or bearish view.

Call buying at $126-$138 on 6/18

Short-term bullish speculation at resistance.

Strategies

Call Diagonal (Calendar Spread)
Sell 2026-06-18 $126.00 call / buy 2026-07-17 $140.00 call
Debit: $2.44-$2.99
Max loss: $2.99
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Monitor bitcoin price and $127 support; if spot drops below $112, consider closing early to limit loss.
Steep contango and high near-term IV allow premium decay from short leg; bearish tilt but small sample; term structure favors calendar over short strangle.
Outperforms: Sells near-term call at $126 to collect high IV premium, buys longer-dated $140 call for upside exposure. Benefits from time decay and volatility crush.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.
Short Strangle
Sell 2026-06-26 $110.00 put + sell $140.00 call
Credit: $2.32-$2.83
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $2.83
BE: 107.17 / 142.83
Trigger: Set stop-loss on break below $110 or above $140; roll if IV spikes further.
High IV and strong support/resistance levels ($100 put floor, $130-$180 call wall) suggest range-bound move; bearish tilt adds caution but still viable.
Outperforms: Sells out-of-the-money put and call to collect high premium from elevated IV; profit if spot stays within $110-$140.
Underperforms: Break outside short strikes invalidates short-vol thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Gamma flip near $100; break below could accelerate drop.
!Max pain $127 for 6/18 may influence spot.
!Call OI wall $130-$180 caps upside; put floor $100 supports.

What to Watch

?Bitcoin price correlation.
?6/18 expiration: $127 max pain and $126/$133 call activity.
?Spot holding $127 vs breakdown below $112.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on June 16, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.