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MSTR

Strategy IncClose $167.33EOD only
Max Pain
$141.00
Next expiry Sep 25, 2026
Expected Move
±$9.55
5.7% from close
Price Gap
-26.33
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
3
Low premium
P/C OI
0.84
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.5/10
Bearish tilt
Published snapshot: Sep 22, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSTR options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Sep 22, 2026 close
MSTR Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close June 24, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from June 24, 2026. A newer earnings report is available for June 26, 2026.

View latest report

Earnings Verdict

MSTR earnings 36d; 20% beat rate; bearish flow heavy puts; IV high.

Confidence:
6.5 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; -1 spot 18.1% from MP; +0.5 VIX 19
Most important: Heavy puts + low beat rate => downside risk.
⚠️20% historical beat rate
🐻Aggressive put buying

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Trending
Flow Regime
Bearish
Spot vs MP
Below
Gamma flip: ~$75.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 14,246 (20.3% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-30 (36 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-06-26 (2d): ±$6.43 (6.8%)
  • 2026-07-02 (8d): ±$11.00 (11.7%)
  • 2026-07-10 (16d): ±$14.67 (15.6%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Upward: 2d 6.8%, 8d 11.7%, 16d 15.6%.

Crush estimate: Significant post-earnings crush.

Skew: Put skew elevated near-dated.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 20% (1/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Moves often lower than implied (1/5 beats).

Directional bias: Slight bearish.

Key Levels

1$75.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 2d $87.70/$100.56; 1w $83.13/$105.13
3Max pain pins: $115 (2026-06-26); $113 (2026-07-02); $125 (2026-07-10)

Flow Highlights

$92 put vol/OI 53.7.

Aggressive bearish bet.

Strategies

Put Calendar
Sell 2026-07-02 $90.00 put / buy 2026-07-31 $90.00 put
Debit: $4.45-$5.44
Max loss: $5.44
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Close if MSTR breaches $90 or near expiration to avoid pin risk.
Upward term structure allows premium harvest with earnings risk hedged; only eligible candidate.
Outperforms: Sell near-term $90 put, buy later $90 put to profit from time decay.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Bitcoin risk amplifies downside.
!Gamma flip @$75.

What to Watch

?$100 support.
?$75 gamma flip.
?Bitcoin.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on June 24, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.