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MSTR

Strategy IncClose $123.97EOD only
Max Pain
$129.00
Next expiry Jun 18, 2026
Expected Move
±$9.62
7.8% from close
Price Gap
+5.03
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
100
High premium
P/C OI
0.95
Balanced positioning
Consensus
6.5/10
Neutral tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 12, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSTR options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 12, 2026 close
MSTR Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close June 12, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

MSTR earnings 48 days out; historical beat rate low at 20%; expected moves moderate; IV elevated; pinning near $125; cautious.

Confidence:
6 / 10
base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +1 VIX 18
Most important: Low beat rate (20%) and long time to event suggest limited directional edge.
⚠️Low beat rate (20%) contradicts high IV; premium may overprice.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
Above
Gamma flip: ~$100.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 22,695 (19.3% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-30 (48 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-06-18 (6d): ±$9.62 (7.8%)
  • 2026-06-26 (14d): ±$14.25 (11.5%)
  • 2026-07-02 (20d): ±$17.18 (13.9%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Front-end elevated: 6d IV ~7.8%, 14d ~11.5%, 20d ~13.9%.

Crush estimate: Moderate crush post-event, ~50% IV drop.

Skew: Call OI wall $132-$180 skews upside.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 20% (1/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Avg move 1.2x expected (limited data).

Directional bias: No clear bias; 1/5 beat.

Key Levels

1$100.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 1w $114.35/$133.60
3Max pain pins: $121 (2026-06-12); $129 (2026-06-18); $145 (2026-06-26)

Flow Highlights

Unusual put volume at $122 and $123 strikes expiring 6/12 with vol/OI > 20.

Downside hedging or near-term directional bet.

Strategies

Iron Condor
Sell 2026-06-26 $120.00/$115.00 put wing and $130.00/$133.00 call wing
Credit: $2.41-$2.94
Max loss: $2.06
Max gain: $2.94
BE: 117.06 / 132.94
Trigger: Manage around pin $121; adjust if BTC breaks range.
Low beat rate and neutral bias favor defined-risk premium harvest.
Outperforms: Sell OTM put and call wings to collect premium.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.
Short Strangle
Sell 2026-06-26 $115.00 put + sell $130.00 call
Credit: $7.25-$8.86
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $8.86
BE: 106.14 / 138.86
Trigger: Monitor gamma risk; roll if necessary.
Higher credit but unlimited risk; secondary play.
Outperforms: Sell OTM put and call for premium.
Underperforms: Break outside short strikes invalidates short-vol thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Low historical beat rate (20%).
!High premium cost with long time to event.

What to Watch

?BTC price correlation.
?Gamma pin at $121.
?Call wall $132-$180.
?Put floor $100.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on June 12, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.