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MSTR

Strategy IncClose $123.97EOD only
Max Pain
$129.00
Next expiry Jun 18, 2026
Expected Move
±$9.62
7.8% from close
Price Gap
+5.03
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
100
High premium
P/C OI
0.95
Balanced positioning
Consensus
6.5/10
Neutral tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 12, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSTR options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 12, 2026 close
MSTR Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close June 15, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

Earnings ~45d away; July options expire before earnings. Near-term IV elevated. Net premium negative but heavy Jul 160C call buying. Low historical beat rate (20%).

Confidence:
5.5 / 10
base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -0.5 spot 3.3% from MP; +1 VIX 16
Most important: Jul 160C volume spike (18.8x OI) but expires before earnings; suggests positioning for early catalyst or hedging.
⚠️Jul 160C massive volume (18.8x OI) but expires before earnings.
📉20% historical beat rate; manage upside expectations.
💡Deep OTM puts (IV 170-322%) suggest tail risk hedging.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
Above
Gamma flip: ~$100.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 23,798 (23.7% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-30 (45 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-06-18 (3d): ±$7.98 (6.1%)
  • 2026-06-26 (11d): ±$13.00 (9.9%)
  • 2026-07-02 (17d): ±$16.18 (12.3%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Front-end elevated (6.1% 3d, 12.3% 17d), backwardated toward Jul 30.

Crush estimate: Crush expected post-earnings but not near-term.

Skew: Skew heavy: deep OTM puts (82P IV 170%, 245P IV 252%) indicate tail risk premium.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 20% (1/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Not computed; limited history.

Directional bias: 20% beat rate suggests downside bias.

Key Levels

1$100.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 2d $123.16/$139.11
3Max pain pins: $127 (2026-06-18); $141 (2026-06-26); $152 (2026-07-02)

Flow Highlights

Jul 160C: 17,253 vol vs 917 OI (18.8x). Expires before earnings.

Aggressive call buying, likely for early event or repositioning.

Aug 275C: 3,553 vol vs 198 OI (17.9x).

Long-dated upside speculation.

Jul 95P: 869 vol vs 200 OI (4.3x).

Bearish put buying at low strike.

Strategies

Iron Condor on Front Month
Sell 2026-06-26 $124.00/$116.00 put wing and $141.00/$152.50 call wing
Credit: $3.34-$4.08
Max loss: $7.42
Max gain: $4.08
BE: 119.92 / 145.08
Trigger: Close at 50% max gain or before earnings.
Captures elevated IV with defined risk, expires before earnings avoiding tail risk.
Outperforms: Sells put and call wings to profit from IV contraction and time decay.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.
Short Strangle Front Month
Sell 2026-06-26 $124.00 put + sell $141.00 call
Credit: $5.83-$7.13
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $7.13
BE: 116.87 / 148.13
Trigger: Monitor BTC price; adjust or close if breached.
Higher credit than iron condor but unlimited risk; suitable for high-conviction IV play.
Outperforms: Sells naked put and call to collect premium from elevated IV pre-earnings.
Underperforms: Break outside short strikes invalidates short-vol thesis.
Bear Put Spread for Earnings
Buy 2026-08-21 $140.00/$120.00 put spread
Debit: $9.43-$11.52
Max loss: $11.52
Max gain: $8.48
BE: $128.48
Trigger: Exit if stock reaches invalidation at $135 or after earnings.
Expresses downside bias from low beat rate, defined risk, post-earnings expiration.
Outperforms: Buys $140 put, sells $120 put to profit from expected decline.
Underperforms: Trade above resistance weakens downside thesis.
Long straddle
Buy 2026-08-21 $140.00 put + buy $140.00 call
Debit: $31.59-$38.61
Max loss: $38.61
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: 101.39 / 178.61
Earnings catalyst ~45d away, low beat rate implies high move probability; Aug 21 expiration post-earnings allows event capture.
Outperforms: Buy vol into earnings; straddle captures large move regardless of direction.
Underperforms: Under-realized move and IV crush hurt long-vol thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Bitcoin correlation amplifies exogenous risk.
!Low historical beat rate increases miss probability.
!Gamma flip at $100 may accelerate declines.

What to Watch

?BTC price action as key catalyst.
?Weekly max pain levels ($127, $141, $152).
?Gamma flip zone near $100.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on June 15, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.