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MSTR

Strategy IncClose $94.13EOD only
Max Pain
$115.00
Next expiry Jun 26, 2026
Expected Move
±$6.43
6.8% from close
Price Gap
+20.87
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
15
Low premium
P/C OI
0.96
Balanced positioning
Consensus
7.0/10
Bearish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 24, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSTR options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 24, 2026 close
MSTR Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close June 25, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

MSTR earnings 35 days out, elevated IV (~100% front vol), bearish put flow, spot below MP and gamma flip. Low 20% beat rate cautions.

Confidence:
6.5 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; -1 spot 23.1% from MP; +0.5 VIX 19
Most important: Heavy put buying and below-mean spot suggest downside risk; high IV offers premium but crush likely.
🐻Net premium -$658M and put/call vol 2.54: strongest bearish flow in weeks.
📉Term structure backwardated: front vol 94% vs 15d 70% implies time decay play.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Trending
Flow Regime
Bearish
Spot vs MP
Below
Gamma flip: ~$75.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 14,385 (12.1% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-30 (35 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-06-26 (1d): ±$5.07 (5.9%)
  • 2026-07-02 (7d): ±$10.40 (12.2%)
  • 2026-07-10 (15d): ±$14.48 (17.0%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Backwardated: 1d IV ~94%, 7d ~73%, 15d ~70%.

Crush estimate: Expected 40-50% contraction post-event.

Skew: Deep put skew; 50-65 puts elevated vol.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 20% (1/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Only 5 quarters; not determined.

Directional bias: Insufficient data; 1 beat in 5.

Key Levels

1$75.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 2d $80.26/$90.41; 1w $74.93/$95.73
3Max pain pins: $111 (2026-06-26); $107 (2026-07-02); $119 (2026-07-10)

Flow Highlights

Massive unusual put buying: $86 put vol/OI 51x, $83 put 20x, plus $90 calls sold.

Aggressive bearish positioning; possibly hedging BTC exposure.

Strategies

Short Strangle on Elevated IV
Sell 2026-07-31 $70.00 put + sell $117.00 call
Credit: $6.67-$8.15
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $8.15
BE: 61.85 / 125.15
Trigger: Monitor spot near breakevens; consider rolling if spot approaches strikes. Aim to close before earnings or after IV collapse.
Highest premium capture from elevated IV (~100%) and backwardation; bearish put flow can be offset by call side. High probability of IV crush post-earnings.
Outperforms: Sells out-of-the-money put and call to collect premium, betting that MSTR stays within range.
Underperforms: Break outside short strikes invalidates short-vol thesis.
Iron Condor with Bearish Tilt
Sell 2026-07-31 $80.00/$70.00 put wing and $100.00/$104.00 call wing
Credit: $4.75-$5.80
Max loss: $4.20
Max gain: $5.80
BE: 74.20 / 105.80
Trigger: Set stop loss at max loss; exit if spot breaches one side of the range. Close after IV crush. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_call: Open interest below 25.
Defined-risk alternative that limits tail risk; bearish bias via narrower put wing. Suitable when uncertainty is high but directional bias exists.
Outperforms: Sells put spread and call spread to collect credit, with range defined by strikes.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.

Risk Assessment

!IV crush risk: post-event vol could drop sharply.
!Spot far below MP and gamma flip level suggests further downside.
!Low historical beat rate increases uncertainty.

What to Watch

?BTC price action as key driver.
?MSTR premium to NAV convergence.
?Macro and VIX direction.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on June 25, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.