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MSTR

Strategy IncClose $112.53EOD only
Max Pain
$126.00
Next expiry Jun 26, 2026
Expected Move
±$10.33
9.2% from close
Price Gap
+13.47
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
100
High premium
P/C OI
0.96
Balanced positioning
Consensus
6.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 18, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSTR options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 18, 2026 close
MSTR Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close June 18, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

MSTR earnings 42d out; IV elevated, call OI wall above, spot below max pain; low beat rate (20%) suggests downside risk.

Confidence:
7 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; -1 spot 8.5% from MP; +1 VIX 16
Most important: Unusual call buying for 6/26 expiration at $116-$121 with massive vol/oi ratios.
🟢Heavy call buying for 6/26 exp suggests bullish bet ahead of earnings.
🔴Only 1/5 earnings beats (20%); watch for disappointment.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Trending
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
Below
Gamma flip: ~$100.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 23,533 (11.1% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-30 (42 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-06-26 (8d): ±$10.32 (9.2%)
  • 2026-07-02 (14d): ±$13.73 (12.2%)
  • 2026-07-10 (22d): ±$16.88 (15.0%)

IV Setup

Term structure: 8d IV ~73%, 22d ~61%, upward sloping.

Crush estimate: Expect 10-15% IV crush post-earnings.

Skew: Put/call volume ratio 1.05, OI 0.96; call activity dominates unusual prints.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 20% (1/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Not enough data (5 quarters).

Directional bias: Low beat rate (20%) suggests bearish bias.

Key Levels

1$100.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 1w $102.20/$122.85
3Max pain pins: $123 (2026-06-18); $126 (2026-06-26); $140 (2026-07-02)

Flow Highlights

Large call buying on 6/26 $116-$121 strikes with vol/oi up to 192x.

Traders positioning for short-term upside, possibly hedging short positions.

0DTE call activity on 6/18 with high IVs, closing near spot.

Speculative positioning for intraday bounce.

Strategies

Put Diagonal
Sell 2026-07-02 $105.00 put / buy 2026-07-10 $107.00 put
Debit: $1.89-$2.31
Max loss: $2.31
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Roll if short strike touched before expiry.
Captures IV crush and bearish bias; cheaper than outright puts.
Outperforms: Calendar spread to profit from vol contraction.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.
Iron Condor
Sell 2026-07-02 $104.00/$95.00 put wing and $126.00/$133.00 call wing
Credit: $2.57-$3.15
Max loss: $5.85
Max gain: $3.15
BE: 100.85 / 129.15
Trigger: Adjust if breaks $104 or $126.
High IV premium sale with downside tilt; good risk/reward.
Outperforms: Neutral-to-bearish premium collection play.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.
Bear put spread
Buy 2026-08-21 $110.00/$105.00 put spread
Debit: $2.11-$2.58
Max loss: $2.58
Max gain: $2.42
BE: $107.42
Low beat rate (20%), spot below max pain, IV elevated; pay less premium than outright put.
Outperforms: Bearish defined-risk debit spread for MSTR earnings.
Underperforms: Trade above resistance weakens downside thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Gamma flip risk at $100 put OI concentration; call wall $125-$135.
!Spot ($112) below max pain ($123) favors puts.

What to Watch

?Bitcoin price action; SPY/QQQ momentum; VIX trend.
?MSTR correlation with BTC; any news on bitcoin acquisitions.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on June 18, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.