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MSTR

Strategy IncClose $109.46EOD only
Max Pain
$116.00
Next expiry Jun 26, 2026
Expected Move
±$8.25
7.5% from close
Price Gap
+6.54
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
6
Low premium
P/C OI
0.98
Balanced positioning
Consensus
5.0/10
Bearish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 22, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSTR options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 22, 2026 close
MSTR Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close June 23, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

Low beat rate, high IV, bullish flow amid bearish market.

Confidence:
6.5 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; -1 spot 9.7% from MP; +0.5 VIX 19
Most important: Unusual call buying in weeklies contrasts with poor earnings history.
📞Unusual call activity in weeklies signals bullish conviction.
📉Low historical beat rate and bearish context raise caution.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Trending
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
Below
Gamma flip: ~$75.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 14,354 (27.8% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-30 (37 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-06-26 (3d): ±$6.93 (6.7%)
  • 2026-07-02 (9d): ±$10.65 (10.3%)
  • 2026-07-10 (17d): ±$14.07 (13.6%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Steep, near-term IV elevated: 3d 6.7% vs 17d 13.6%.

Crush estimate: Significant post-earnings compression ~20-30%

Skew: Slight call bias; put OI concentrated at $75.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 20% (1/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Typically smaller than implied, but limited sample.

Directional bias: Bearish given 20% beat rate and negative market.

Key Levels

1$75.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 2d $96.91/$110.76; 1w $93.19/$114.49
3Max pain pins: $115 (2026-06-26); $125 (2026-07-02); $130 (2026-07-10)

Flow Highlights

Aggressive call buying in 7/2 and 6/26 expirations at $117 and $110 strikes.

Anticipation of upside despite bearish macro and low beat rate.

Strategies

Put Calendar
Sell 2026-07-31 $105.00 put / buy 2026-08-21 $105.00 put
Debit: $2.56-$3.13
Max loss: $3.13
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Close after first expiry or if spot nears 100.
Top pick: steep term structure and high near-term IV allow selling decaying put while owning longer-dated protection. Benefits from crush and directional neutrality.
Outperforms: Exploits elevated short-term IV vs longer-term; profit if stock stays above sold strike at first expiry.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.
Iron condor
Sell 2026-07-31 $100.00/$95.00 put wing and $110.00/$113.00 call wing
Credit: $2.79-$3.41
Max loss: $1.59
Max gain: $3.41
BE: 96.59 / 113.41
High IV, typical move smaller than implied, low beat rate; sell wings for premium decay.
Outperforms: Range-bound post-earnings trade exploiting high IV and IV crush.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.
Bear put spread
Buy 2026-07-31 $104.00/$95.00 put spread
Debit: $3.62-$4.43
Max loss: $4.43
Max gain: $4.57
BE: $99.57
Low beat rate, bearish market directional bias, high IV supports put premiums.
Outperforms: Profit from post-earnings decline with defined risk.
Underperforms: Trade above resistance weakens downside thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Gap risk from low liquidity in some strikes.
!Gamma flip at $75 if spot declines.
!Bitcoin correlation amplifies moves.

What to Watch

?Bitcoin price action
?$110 strike resistance
?Market sentiment (SPY/QQQ)
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on June 23, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.