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MSTR

Strategy IncClose $122.81EOD only
Max Pain
$127.00
Next expiry Jun 18, 2026
Expected Move
±$6.07
5.0% from close
Price Gap
+4.19
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
100
High premium
P/C OI
0.93
Balanced positioning
Consensus
6.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 16, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSTR options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 16, 2026 close
MSTR Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close June 17, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

MSTR earnings 43 days away. High IV, low beat rate, mixed flow. Unusual put activity suggests hedging.

Confidence:
6.5 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; -1 spot 8.2% from MP; +0.5 VIX 18
Most important: Low historical beat rate (20%) and deep ITM put flow signal caution despite call wall.
⚠️Deep ITM put buys suggest hedging or bearish bet; monitor spot below $110

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Trending
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
Below
Gamma flip: ~$100.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 23,197 (14.2% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-30 (43 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-06-18 (1d): ±$4.90 (4.2%)
  • 2026-06-26 (9d): ±$11.12 (9.5%)
  • 2026-07-02 (15d): ±$14.35 (12.3%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Upward sloping: 1d ±4.2%, 9d ±9.5%, 15d ±12.3%

Crush estimate: Significant crush post-earnings, likely 50-70% IV drop

Skew: Put skewed, deep ITM puts active

Historical Context

Beat rate: 20% (1/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Not clear, but low beat rate suggests moves often miss implied

Directional bias: Slight bearish bias due to 20% beat rate

Key Levels

1$100.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 2d $111.66/$121.46; 1w $105.43/$127.68
3Max pain pins: $127 (2026-06-18); $135 (2026-06-26); $145 (2026-07-02)

Flow Highlights

Large call volume on Jun26 $123, $133, $131 strikes, vol/OI >14x

Bullish positioning for mid-term, possibly earnings speculation

Deep ITM put volume: Jun18 $220, $175, $190 puts with 7x vol/OI

Likely hedging or bearish conviction, given strikes well above spot

Strategies

Sell Volatility Premium
Sell 2026-06-26 $110.00 put + sell $126.00 call
Credit: $4.64-$5.67
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $5.67
BE: 104.33 / 131.67
Trigger: Target 50% max gain; adjust if stock nears strikes.
High IV and upward term structure favor premium sale; low beat rate suggests range-bound move.
Outperforms: Sell OTM put and call to capture time decay and expected IV crush.
Underperforms: Break outside short strikes invalidates short-vol thesis.
Buy Tail Risk
Buy 2026-08-21 $115.00 put + buy $135.00 call
Debit: $21.02-$25.69
Max loss: $25.69
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: 89.31 / 160.69
Trigger: Stop-loss at 50% premium loss; exit before earnings or let run.
Low beat rate and put hedging signal potential large move; cheaper than straddle.
Outperforms: Buy OTM put and call for asymmetric upside/downside exposure.
Underperforms: Insufficient realized move reduces long-strangle edge.
Buy Momentum Straddle
Buy 2026-08-21 $125.00 put + buy $125.00 call
Debit: $29.14-$35.61
Max loss: $35.61
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: 89.39 / 160.61
Trigger: Set stop-loss; premium decay is rapid if no move.
Low beat rate and deep put flow imply binary outcome; straddle captures any big move.
Outperforms: Buy ATM put and call for maximum volatility exposure.
Underperforms: Under-realized move and IV crush hurt long-vol thesis.

Risk Assessment

!High IV amplifies move risk
!Low beat rate increases disappointment probability
!43 days to event - significant theta decay

What to Watch

?Bitcoin price correlation
?Gamma levels: resistance $125-$139, support $100
?Open interest in Jun26 calls for conviction
?VIX and market context
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on June 17, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.