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MSTR

Strategy IncClose $123.97EOD only
Max Pain
$129.00
Next expiry Jun 18, 2026
Expected Move
±$9.62
7.8% from close
Price Gap
+5.03
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
100
High premium
P/C OI
0.95
Balanced positioning
Consensus
6.5/10
Neutral tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 12, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSTR options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 12, 2026 close
MSTR Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close June 11, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from June 11, 2026. A newer earnings report is available for June 12, 2026.

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Earnings Verdict

MSTR 49 days to earnings; high IV, low beat rate 20%, net short premium -$388M, pinning gamma near $123.

Confidence:
5.5 / 10
base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +0.5 VIX 19
Most important: Unusual call activity at $123 and $127 strikes vs negative net premium suggests mixed positioning; tail-risk puts active.
📉Beat rate 20% — only 1 beat in 5 quarters.
⚠️Net premium -$388M; institutional de-risking.
🔼$123C volume 23.4x OI; bullish bet or covering.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
Below
Gamma flip: ~$100.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 22,042 (16.8% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-30 (49 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-06-12 (1d): ±$5.11 (4.3%)
  • 2026-06-18 (7d): ±$10.72 (8.9%)
  • 2026-06-26 (15d): ±$15.28 (12.7%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Decaying: 1d ±4.3%, 7d ±8.9%, 15d ±12.7%; long-dated IV elevated.

Crush estimate: Not imminent; earnings 7 weeks out; IV high but not event-priced.

Skew: Put skew extreme: $220P IV 277%, $240P IV 100% — tail hedging.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 20% (1/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Limited data; beat rate 20% implies downside bias.

Directional bias: Bearish given low beat rate and negative net premium.

Key Levels

1$100.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 2d $115.04/$125.26; 1w $109.43/$130.88
3Max pain pins: $123 (2026-06-12); $133 (2026-06-18); $150 (2026-06-26)

Flow Highlights

$123C 6/18 vol/oi 23.4x, $127C 6/12 vol/oi 15.7x.

Aggressive short-dated bullish bets despite negative flow; possibly hedging or spec.

Deep OTM puts $220P, $240P with high IV.

Tail risk positioning; downside protection active.

Strategies

Put Calendar
Sell 2026-06-18 $120.00 put / buy 2026-07-17 $120.00 put
Debit: $5.31-$6.49
Max loss: $6.49
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Monitor underlying; exit if below invalidation $104.88.
Low beat rate & negative net premium favor time decay; term structure decaying.
Outperforms: Sells near-term put, buys later put to capture IV decay.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.
Iron Condor
Sell 2026-07-02 $120.00/$115.00 put wing and $125.00/$130.00 call wing
Credit: $3.67-$4.48
Max loss: $0.52
Max gain: $4.48
BE: 115.52 / 129.48
Trigger: Adjust if $120 break; max profit at $122.50.
Low beat rate & net short premium suggest range-bound decay.
Outperforms: Sells out-of-the-money put and call wings.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.
Long straddle
Buy 2026-08-21 $125.00 put + buy $125.00 call
Debit: $30.29-$37.02
Max loss: $37.02
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: 87.98 / 162.02
MSTR low beat rate but high IV; straddle profits from outsized move
Outperforms: Buy ATM straddle to capture large earnings move
Underperforms: Under-realized move and IV crush hurt long-vol thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Low beat rate 20% increases downside risk.
!Gamma flip near $100 could amplify selloff.
!VIX 19 still elevated; macro drag possible.
!Negative net premium suggests institutional de-risking.

What to Watch

?Weekly pin action at $123 and $128 strikes.
?Bitcoin price correlation with MSTR.
?Open interest changes in $130-$180 call wall.
?Net premium flow turning positive as signal.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on June 11, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.