MSTR
Strategy IncClose $117.02EOD onlyThis page reflects MSTR options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.
Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.
Earnings Verdict
MSTR earnings ~50 days out; near-term options flow (6/12,6/18) not tied to event. Spot below MP, mixed flow: heavy call buying but net negative premium. Historical beat rate low (20%).
Regime Classification
Earnings Overview
Next earnings: 2026-07-30 (50 days)explicit
Expected moves:
- 2026-06-12 (2d): ±$6.40 (5.5%)
- 2026-06-18 (8d): ±$11.25 (9.8%)
- 2026-06-26 (16d): ±$15.43 (13.4%)
IV Setup
Term structure: Steep front-end, 2d IV ~76-79%, 8d IV ~76-97%, long-dated IV elevated (83-96%).
Crush estimate: Minimal earnings crush until late July; near-term expiry crush ~50% on 6/12.
Skew: Put skew elevated, especially long-dated puts (Oct $90 put IV 83.6%), indicating downside hedging.
Historical Context
Beat rate: 20% (1/5 quarters)
Avg move vs expected: Historical avg move not provided, but low beat rate suggests moves often disappoint.
Directional bias: Bearish bias from historical misses, but recent call buying suggests contrarian upside.
Key Levels
Flow Highlights
Unusual call buying: 6/12 $119C (9.1x), 6/18 $122C (7.6x), 6/12 $120C (4.4x).
Aggressive short-dated upside bets despite mixed flow.
Put buying: 6/18 $102P (7.1x), 7/10 $80P (6.4x), 10/16 $90P (4.8x).
Hedging or bearish bets on downside, especially longer-dated.
Strategies
Risk Assessment
What to Watch
Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.
Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.
These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.