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MSTR

Strategy IncClose $117.02EOD only
Max Pain
$125.00
Next expiry Jun 12, 2026
Expected Move
±$8.47
7.2% from close
Price Gap
+7.98
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
94
High premium
P/C OI
0.96
Balanced positioning
Consensus
7.0/10
Bearish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 9, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSTR options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 9, 2026 close
MSTR Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close June 9, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

MSTR 51 days from earnings, bearish flow and elevated IV. Low historical beat rate (20%). Spot below max pain; heavy put activity suggests downside risk.

Confidence:
6.5 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; -1 spot 6.4% from MP; +0.5 VIX 20
Most important: Heavy put activity and bearish gamma suggest downside pressure into mid-June.
🔻Put/call volume ratio 1.54 signals dominant bearish flow.
📉Spot 6.4% below max pain, aligning with bearish gamma.
⚠️Low 20% beat rate raises risk of earnings miss.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Trending
Flow Regime
Bearish
Spot vs MP
Below
Gamma flip: ~$100.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 23,128 (14.5% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-30 (51 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-06-12 (3d): ±$8.47 (7.2%)
  • 2026-06-18 (9d): ±$13.05 (11.2%)
  • 2026-06-26 (17d): ±$16.92 (14.5%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Front-end elevated (3d IV ~72% annualized) due to near-term expiries; longer-dated IV tapers but remains high.

Crush estimate: Moderate to large crush post-earnings (51d out), typical for high-vol names.

Skew: Put skew steep, driven by aggressive put buying across multiple expirations.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 20% (1/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Historical moves often exceed expected, but sample limited (5 quarters).

Directional bias: Bearish; only 1 beat in 5 quarters, implying frequent downside surprises.

Key Levels

1$100.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 2d $108.54/$125.49; 1w $103.97/$130.07
3Max pain pins: $125 (2026-06-12); $140 (2026-06-18); $155 (2026-06-26)

Flow Highlights

Unusual put buying: MSTR 2026-07-02 $115 Put, volume 5385 vs OI 349 (15.4x).

Large bearish bet on continued decline through early July.

Heavy put volume on $92 strike expiring 6/12 (2173 vs OI 191).

Deep OTM puts used as tail hedge or downside speculation.

Strategies

Bear Put Spread
Buy 2026-08-21 $115.00/$110.00 put spread
Debit: $2.23-$2.72
Max loss: $2.72
Max gain: $2.28
BE: $112.28
Trigger: Monitor invalidation at $125; exit near expiry if untested.
Sole eligible candidate; bearish flow & low beat rate favor downside.
Outperforms: Buy $115/$110 put spread for defined risk on bearish earnings outcome.
Underperforms: Trade above resistance weakens downside thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Spot trading below max pain ($125) increases pin risk lower.
!High put OI concentration near $100-$100 suggests support but risk of breakdown.
!VIX ~20 amplifies long premium decay; time decay works against longs.

What to Watch

?Break of $108.54 (2d EM guardrail) could accelerate selloff.
?Resistance at $125 (max pain) and $126 (call wall).
?Bitcoin price correlation remains key driver for MSTR.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on June 9, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.