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MSTR

Strategy IncClose $120.44EOD only
Max Pain
$136.00
Next expiry Jun 12, 2026
Expected Move
±$12.75
10.6% from close
Price Gap
+15.56
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
94
High premium
P/C OI
0.96
Balanced positioning
Consensus
7.0/10
Bearish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 5, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSTR options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 5, 2026 close
MSTR Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close June 8, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

MSTR earnings July 30, near-term options show positioning for volatility. Massive unusual call buying in Aug 125 calls, but net premium negative and 20% beat rate. Confidence 6/10.

Confidence:
6 / 10
base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +0.5 spot 1.8% from MP; +0.5 VIX 19
Most important: High IV and active flow around key levels; watch pinning to $125 max pain.
🚀Massive 80x vol/OI in Aug 125 calls signals big bullish positioning.
🔻Net premium -$126M suggests hedging or bearish flow.
⚠️Historical beat rate 20% (1/5) raises caution.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
Above
Gamma flip: ~$100.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 25,552 (21.4% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-30 (52 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-06-12 (4d): ±$9.70 (7.6%)
  • 2026-06-18 (10d): ±$13.93 (10.9%)
  • 2026-06-26 (18d): ±$17.47 (13.7%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Near-term IV 80-85%, flattening to ~78% Jul, 83% Aug.

Crush estimate: N/A for far-out event; near-term crush after June expiries.

Skew: Call OI wall $136-180; put floor $100; slight call bias.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 20% (1/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Not available; expected moves: 7.6% (4d), 10.9% (10d), 13.7% (18d).

Directional bias: 20% beat rate suggests bearish tendency.

Key Levels

1$100.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 1w $113.27/$141.12
3Max pain pins: $125 (2026-06-12); $143 (2026-06-18); $160 (2026-06-26)

Flow Highlights

Massive 80x vol/OI on Aug 21 $125 Call (51k vol vs 644 OI).

Large bullish bet or hedging demand.

Net premium negative -$126M, put/call OI ratio ~1.0.

Mixed flow; calls dominate volume but puts also active.

Strategies

Iron Condor
Sell 2026-07-02 $120.00/$118.00 put wing and $130.00/$134.00 call wing
Credit: $2.18-$2.67
Max loss: $1.33
Max gain: $2.67
BE: 117.33 / 132.67
Trigger: Close at 50% max gain or adjust if breaching $120-$130.
Best aligns with flat term structure and $125 pinning; captures IV crush with defined risk.
Outperforms: Sells put/call wings around $125, profiting from range-bound move and time decay.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.
Short Strangle
Sell 2026-07-02 $120.00 put + sell $130.00 call
Credit: $14.18-$17.33
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $17.33
BE: 102.67 / 147.33
Trigger: Monitor delta exposure; roll untested side if trend emerges.
Higher premium but unlimited risk; bearish bias adds caution.
Outperforms: Sells OTM puts and calls to collect premium; profits if stock stays within 120-130.
Underperforms: Break outside short strikes invalidates short-vol thesis.
Long straddle
Buy 2026-06-12 $128.00 put + buy $128.00 call
Debit: $8.82-$10.78
Max loss: $10.78
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: 117.22 / 138.78
High IV and bearish bias, profits from large move either direction
Outperforms: Buy straddle for earnings move
Underperforms: Under-realized move and IV crush hurt long-vol thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Bitcoin correlation adds tail risk.
!High IV may contract post-earnings.
!Gamma pinning around $125 support.
!Low liquidity in deep OTM strikes.

What to Watch

?Price action vs $125 support and $130 resistance.
?Volume in Aug 125 calls as conviction gauge.
?Bitcoin price movement ahead of earnings.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on June 8, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.