MSTR
Strategy IncClose $129.37EOD onlyThis page reflects MSTR options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.
Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.
Earnings Verdict
MSTR 55d to earnings; bearish flow with put vol ratio 1.78, massive call buying on 6/12 expiries (vol/oi >100) but deep OTM puts also active. Low beat rate (20%) and market selloff weigh. IV elevated; supports $104, resistance $130.
Regime Classification
Earnings Overview
Next earnings: 2026-07-30 (55 days)explicit
Expected moves:
- 2026-06-12 (7d): ±$12.75 (10.6%)
- 2026-06-18 (13d): ±$16.60 (13.8%)
- 2026-06-26 (21d): ±$20.10 (16.7%)
IV Setup
Term structure: Steep upward slope: 7d 10.6%, 13d 13.8%, 21d 16.7% implied moves. Earnings 55d out likely higher.
Crush estimate: Moderate: current IV already elevated; post-earnings crush ~10-15% depending on spot.
Skew: Deep OTM puts (325% IV at $30) show tail risk premium.
Historical Context
Beat rate: 20% (1/5 quarters)
Avg move vs expected: Not available; beat rate 20% suggests frequent misses.
Directional bias: Bearish: only 1/5 beats, strong put flow.
Key Levels
Flow Highlights
Aggressive 6/12 $125 and $132 call buying: vol/oi 122.9 and 108.6, notable as new positions.
Bullish positioning ahead of earnings? Could be covering or speculative. But heavy put flow offsets.
Deep OTM 6/12 $30 put: vol 10,629 vs OI 154, vol/oi 69, IV 325%.
Tail-risk hedge; suggests fear of extreme downside.
Strategies
Risk Assessment
What to Watch
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