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MSTR

Strategy IncClose $126.54EOD only
Max Pain
$147.00
Next expiry Jun 5, 2026
Expected Move
±$7.80
6.2% from close
Price Gap
+20.46
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
72
High premium
P/C OI
0.98
Balanced positioning
Consensus
6.0/10
Range bias
Published snapshot: Jun 3, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSTR options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 3, 2026 close
MSTR Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close June 4, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

MSTR far from earnings; near-term setup driven by BTC correlation and high IV. Unusual call buying at upside strikes suggests bullish positioning, but heavy put OI below provides floor.

Confidence:
7 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; -1 spot 7.6% from MP; +1 VIX 15
Most important: High call volume at 2026-06-12 $141 and $133 strikes indicates aggressive bullish bets despite historical 20% beat rate.
🟢Unusual call buying at $141 and $133 for 8d expiry shows bullish conviction.
🔴Limited earnings history; BTC correlation dominates fundamentals.
⚠️Net negative premium of -$504M suggests overall bearish flow dominance.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Trending
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
Below
Gamma flip: ~$100.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 25,899 (22.7% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-30 (56 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-06-05 (1d): ±$5.17 (4.0%)
  • 2026-06-12 (8d): ±$12.90 (10.0%)
  • 2026-06-18 (14d): ±$16.20 (12.5%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Steeply upward sloping: 1d 4%, 8d 10%, 14d 12.5% implied moves reflect high theta decay.

Crush estimate: No earnings crush imminent; IV elevated due to BTC correlation and market volatility.

Skew: Skew elevated on puts: 1w 89.7 IV at $112 vs 80.0 on $143 call, reflecting downside fear.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 20% (1/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Historical moves driven by BTC volatility; no clear earnings-based edge.

Directional bias: No directional bias from earnings; BTC correlation primary driver.

Key Levels

1$100.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 2d $124.19/$134.54; 1w $116.47/$142.27
3Max pain pins: $140 (2026-06-05); $144 (2026-06-12); $150 (2026-06-18)

Flow Highlights

Unusual block trades of 13,255 calls at $141 strike for 2026-06-12.

Large bullish speculation ahead of next earnings; likely institutional positioning.

Significant put volume at $119 (weekly) and $112 (8d) strikes.

Hedging against sharp downside, possibly tied to BTC volatility.

Strategies

Iron Condor
Sell 2026-06-12 $123.00/$114.00 put wing and $139.00/$148.00 call wing
Credit: $3.22-$3.94
Max loss: $5.06
Max gain: $3.94
BE: 119.06 / 142.94
Trigger: Close at 50% profit or 1 week before expiration; adjust wings if spot breaks $114 or $148.
Best for range-bound high IV environment with no earnings catalyst; spot near max pain and defined risk.
Outperforms: Sell put and call wings around expected range, capturing premium decay.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.
Call Diagonal
Sell 2026-06-12 $139.00 call / buy 2026-07-17 $155.00 call
Debit: $2.66-$3.25
Max loss: $3.25
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Roll if short strike is tested; monitor BTC price for early exit.
Captures elevated near-term IV decay with bullish skew, defined risk, and liquidity.
Outperforms: Sell short-dated call, buy longer-dated call to profit from time decay.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.
Put Diagonal
Sell 2026-06-12 $123.00 put / buy 2026-07-17 $115.00 put
Debit: $3.24-$3.96
Max loss: $3.96
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Close if spot drops below $115; adjust strikes after initial decay.
Put floor at $95-$100 provides support; calendar structure mitigates premium erosion.
Outperforms: Sell short-dated put, buy longer-dated put to benefit from time decay with downside protection.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.
Short strangle
Sell 2026-06-12 $120.00 put + sell $141.00 call
Credit: $4.69-$5.73
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $5.73
BE: 114.27 / 146.73
High IV without earnings event; premium decay attractive, but undefined risk if BTC moves sharply.
Outperforms: Sell out-of-the-money put and call to capture elevated premium, expecting limited move.
Underperforms: Break outside short strikes invalidates short-vol thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Gamma exposure: $140 max pain for weekly; spot below may accelerate to max pain if pinned.
!Put OI concentration at $95-$100 provides strong floor but could be tested on BTC drop.
!High call OI at $155-$180 may cap upside on rallies if unhedged.

What to Watch

?Spot relative to $140 max pain and $130 resistance.
?BTC price action as MSTR tracks BTC closely.
?VIX above 15 adds volatility premium to options.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on June 4, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.