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MSTR

Strategy IncClose $159.89EOD only
Max Pain
$170.00
Next expiry May 29, 2026
Expected Move
±$9.93
6.2% from close
Price Gap
+10.11
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
47
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.89
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
7.0/10
Bearish tilt
Published snapshot: May 22, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSTR options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 22, 2026 close
MSTR Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close May 26, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

MSTR 65 days from earnings, elevated IV, heavy call activity, low 20% beat rate. Mixed risk/reward.

Confidence:
5.5 / 10
base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -0.5 spot 3.1% from MP; +1 VIX 17
Most important: IV high but earnings far; focus on short-term gamma and call wall at $170-$200.
🐻20% beat rate suggests caution
💼Heavy call buying near expiry bullish
⚠️Net premium -$102M signals profit-taking

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
Below

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-30 (65 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-05-29 (3d): ±$8.33 (5.2%)
  • 2026-06-05 (10d): ±$13.75 (8.6%)
  • 2026-06-12 (17d): ±$17.85 (11.2%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Contango: near-term IV ~62%, longer-dated >70%

Crush estimate: Post-earnings IV crush 50-70% but far out; short-term crush less relevant

Skew: Call skew elevated (OTM calls high IV), puts relatively lower

Historical Context

Beat rate: 20% (1/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Insufficient data; beat rate 20% suggests negative bias

Directional bias: Bearish historical leaning

Key Levels

1EM guardrails: 2d $151.60/$168.25; 1w $146.18/$173.68
2Max pain pins: $165 (2026-05-29); $178 (2026-06-05); $180 (2026-06-12)

Flow Highlights

Large call volume at $162.5 and $170 strikes for 5/29 and 6/5 expirations

Bullish short-term positioning, likely speculative

Notable OTM call at $285 for 6/26 expiration with elevated IV

Lotto-style bullish bet; low probability but high IV

Strategies

Iron Condor
Sell 2026-06-05 $155.00/$148.00 put wing and $170.00/$172.50 call wing
Credit: $2.40-$2.93
Max loss: $4.07
Max gain: $2.93
BE: 152.07 / 172.93
Trigger: Close at 50% max gain or near earnings.
Captures near-term range, call wall at $170, support at $155.
Outperforms: Profits from low volatility and mean reversion before earnings.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.
Short strangle
Sell 2026-06-05 $152.50 put + sell $170.00 call
Credit: $6.17-$7.54
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $7.54
BE: 144.96 / 177.54
Near-term IV elevated, undefined but managed.
Outperforms: Sell high IV strangle for premium decay.
Underperforms: Break outside short strikes invalidates short-vol thesis.
Long straddle
Buy 2026-08-21 $165.00 put + buy $165.00 call
Debit: $39.96-$48.84
Max loss: $48.84
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: 116.16 / 213.84
Earnings catalyst with 87 DTE, elevated IV, and 20% beat rate suggest potential for significant move; long straddle captures volatility regardless of direction.
Outperforms: Profit from large post-earnings move via ATM straddle; high IV but far out, low beat rate adds uncertainty.
Underperforms: Under-realized move and IV crush hurt long-vol thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Bitcoin volatility driving MSTR
!High IV premium decay if flat
!Short squeeze potential if spot pushes to call wall
!Low beat rate implies downside earnings risk

What to Watch

?Bitcoin price action
?MSTR spot at $165 resistance
?OI changes at $170 call wall
?Treasury BTC purchases/sales
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on May 26, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.