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MSFT

Microsoft CorporationClose $370.87EOD only

Max Pain

$370.00

Next expiry Apr 13, 2026

Expected Move

±$5.16

1.4% from close

Price Gap

-0.87

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

High premium

P/C OI

0.45

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

6.0/10

Range bias

Published snapshot: Apr 10, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSFT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Apr 10, 2026 close

MSFT Theta Report

Analysis based on market close April 8, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 8, 2026. A newer theta report is available for April 10, 2026.

View latest report

Theta Verdict

Confidence:

6 / 10

base 5.5; +1 strong positive GEX pinning (+$84.3M); -0.5 mixed flow / heavy institutional put buying (Net Premium -$141.8M); +0.0 spot 1.2% above MP already included

IV Environment

IV Regime

Normal

IV vs VIX

Avg IV 34.6% (VIX not provided) — IV is elevated for a large-cap like MSFT and rich at several expiries (30d ATM 36.6%)

Favorable?

Yes

Term structure: Short-dated IVs 2-12d sit 25-31% (2d ATM 31.3%, 5d 25.7%, 12d 25.8%); 23-44d expiries are richer (23d 38.8%, 30d 36.6%, 37d 35.3%) — sell in the 30-45 DTE window to capture richer vol

💰Avg IV 34.6% with 30-45 DTE ATM ~35% offers attractive theta vs typical large-cap thresholds

⚠️Short-dated expiries show compressed IV (2-12d 25-31%) — avoid naked weekly sells into strong short-dated put flow

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Above by ~1.2% ($374.33 vs Max Pain $370.00)

GEX regime: Pinning (Total GEX +$84.3M; strong near-term concentrations at $380, $375, $372.50)

OI concentrations: Near-term call OI cluster $380.00 (9,697 OI) and put cluster $370.00 (3,980 OI); structural call OI wall $400-$525 (heavy call walls far OTM)

Verdict: Favorable — dealer pinning (positive GEX) supports put-spread/cash-secured put selling around $370-$380 but be mindful of heavy institutional put flow and short-dated unusual activity

Premium Opportunities

put spread (CSP-style defined-risk)

Sell 2026-05-08 365/360 put spread (30 DTE)

365 is a near-term put cluster and sits inside the 1-week EM range; 30d IV is rich (30d ATM 36.6%) and positive GEX pinning makes downside mean-revert into the $370 MP; defined risk protects vs tails while collecting elevated theta.

Credit: $0.80-$1.40

Max loss: $4.20

BE: $364.20

Mgmt: Take profits at 50-65% of max credit; roll down 1-2 strikes or widen if price closes < $370 with IV spike; close if price breaches $365.65 (1w EM guardrail) or spread loses >60% of initial margin

iron condor

Sell 2026-05-08 iron condor: sell 365P / buy 360P x sell 410C / buy 415C (30 DTE)

Wider wings take advantage of pinning and elevated 30d IV (36.6%). Put side anchored by the $365 put cluster and call side stays well inside structural call OI wall ($400+). Good risk/reward if market grinds sideways inside EM guardrails.

Credit: $1.25-$1.90

Max loss: $3.75

BE: 361.25 / 411.25

Mgmt: Close at 50% of max profit; tighten or roll if short-side tested (within one strike) or if price breaches $365.65 (put side) or rallies toward $400 call wall aggressively; cut losses if either short strike is touched and reversal not confirmed

covered call / buy-write

Buy 100 shares and sell 2026-05-08 395 call (30 DTE)

Covered call collects elevated 30d call premium while keeping bullish exposure; 395 call is ~+5.7% from spot and well below structural call wall but offers decent extra yield in a pinning regime.

Credit: $0.32-$0.46

Max loss: Stock - premium received

BE: $373.97

Mgmt: Buy back call at 50-65% of premium captured or if price approaches 395 with momentum; if stock drops below $365.65 consider closing or rolling to a lower strike to reduce delta exposure

calendar (debit calendar put sell)

Sell 2026-04-17 (9 DTE) 375 put and buy 2026-05-08 375 put (buy longer, sell near-term)

Short-dated front-month put has compressed IV vs 30d (9d ATM 27.1% vs 30d 36.6%); positive GEX pinning reduces sharp downside risk near $375 — collect front-week decay while being long outer-month exposure.

Max loss: Debit paid

Mgmt: Unwind front leg if put tested or IV collapses; target 40-60% of debit as exit; avoid if short-dated unusual put flow spikes (see Apr10 expiries)

Risk Alerts

!Concentrated short-dated unusual put activity into 2026-04-10: multiple ITM/near-ITM puts (e.g., $377.50, $375.00, $380.00) — avoid naked weekly sells into these strikes.

!Net Premium is -$141.8M (heavy put buying) — directional institutional flows could accelerate downside despite pinning.

!Earnings on 2026-04-29 — close/avoid multi-week or monthlies that will span the print if you don't want earnings exposure (outside 2 weeks but approaching month-end).

!EM guardrail lower bounds: 2d $367.53 / 1w $365.65 — breaching these levels should trigger defensive actions on put-side credits.

!Structural call OI wall $400-$525 — large call interest can cap upside but also indicates heavy directional positioning; monitor for one-sided call buying that could flip flow quickly.

Read the Theta analysis for MSFT for 2026-04-08. Each report is a market-close snapshot with regime read, key levels, and strategy context that translates options positioning into an actionable setup.