base 5.5; +1 strong positive GEX pinning (+$84.3M); -0.5 mixed flow / heavy institutional put buying (Net Premium -$141.8M); +0.0 spot 1.2% above MP already included
Term structure: Short-dated IVs 2-12d sit 25-31% (2d ATM 31.3%, 5d 25.7%, 12d 25.8%); 23-44d expiries are richer (23d 38.8%, 30d 36.6%, 37d 35.3%) — sell in the 30-45 DTE window to capture richer vol
Spot vs MP: Above by ~1.2% ($374.33 vs Max Pain $370.00)
GEX regime: Pinning (Total GEX +$84.3M; strong near-term concentrations at $380, $375, $372.50)
OI concentrations: Near-term call OI cluster $380.00 (9,697 OI) and put cluster $370.00 (3,980 OI); structural call OI wall $400-$525 (heavy call walls far OTM)
#1put spread (CSP-style defined-risk)
Sell 2026-05-08 365/360 put spread (30 DTE)
365 is a near-term put cluster and sits inside the 1-week EM range; 30d IV is rich (30d ATM 36.6%) and positive GEX pinning makes downside mean-revert into the $370 MP; defined risk protects vs tails while collecting elevated theta.
Mgmt: Take profits at 50-65% of max credit; roll down 1-2 strikes or widen if price closes < $370 with IV spike; close if price breaches $365.65 (1w EM guardrail) or spread loses >60% of initial margin
#2iron condor
Sell 2026-05-08 iron condor: sell 365P / buy 360P x sell 410C / buy 415C (30 DTE)
Wider wings take advantage of pinning and elevated 30d IV (36.6%). Put side anchored by the $365 put cluster and call side stays well inside structural call OI wall ($400+). Good risk/reward if market grinds sideways inside EM guardrails.
Mgmt: Close at 50% of max profit; tighten or roll if short-side tested (within one strike) or if price breaches $365.65 (put side) or rallies toward $400 call wall aggressively; cut losses if either short strike is touched and reversal not confirmed
#3covered call / buy-write
Buy 100 shares and sell 2026-05-08 395 call (30 DTE)
Covered call collects elevated 30d call premium while keeping bullish exposure; 395 call is ~+5.7% from spot and well below structural call wall but offers decent extra yield in a pinning regime.
Mgmt: Buy back call at 50-65% of premium captured or if price approaches 395 with momentum; if stock drops below $365.65 consider closing or rolling to a lower strike to reduce delta exposure
#4calendar (debit calendar put sell)
Sell 2026-04-17 (9 DTE) 375 put and buy 2026-05-08 375 put (buy longer, sell near-term)
Short-dated front-month put has compressed IV vs 30d (9d ATM 27.1% vs 30d 36.6%); positive GEX pinning reduces sharp downside risk near $375 — collect front-week decay while being long outer-month exposure.
Mgmt: Unwind front leg if put tested or IV collapses; target 40-60% of debit as exit; avoid if short-dated unusual put flow spikes (see Apr10 expiries)
!Concentrated short-dated unusual put activity into 2026-04-10: multiple ITM/near-ITM puts (e.g., $377.50, $375.00, $380.00) — avoid naked weekly sells into these strikes.
!Net Premium is -$141.8M (heavy put buying) — directional institutional flows could accelerate downside despite pinning.
!Earnings on 2026-04-29 — close/avoid multi-week or monthlies that will span the print if you don't want earnings exposure (outside 2 weeks but approaching month-end).
!EM guardrail lower bounds: 2d $367.53 / 1w $365.65 — breaching these levels should trigger defensive actions on put-side credits.
!Structural call OI wall $400-$525 — large call interest can cap upside but also indicates heavy directional positioning; monitor for one-sided call buying that could flip flow quickly.