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MSFT

Microsoft CorporationClose $419.09EOD only

Max Pain

$417.50

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$5.98

1.4% from close

Price Gap

-1.59

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

0.46

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

9.0/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: May 21, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSFT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 21, 2026 close

MSFT Theta Report

Analysis based on market close April 6, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 6, 2026. A newer theta report is available for May 21, 2026.

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Theta Verdict

Confidence:

6 / 10

base 5.5; +1 high IV; +0.5 volatility hump opportunity; -1 mixed flow/regime

IV Environment

IV Regime

Normal

IV vs VIX

Avg IV 33.7% — elevated for MSFT, with a significant hump at May 1st (37.7%)

Favorable?

Yes

Term structure: Pronounced hump at 5/01 (37.7% vs 27.5% on 4/24 and 35.9% on 5/08), creating a ~3.4 vol-point differential

💰Elevated IV (33.7%) provides rich premium for credit sellers

📊IV term structure hump at 5/01 (37.7%) offers volatility arbitrage via reverse calendars

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Above nearest max pain ($368) by 1.3%

GEX regime: Pinning (GEX +$54.3M, DEX +71.7M shares)

OI concentrations: Near-term: Call OI $395 (1,390), Put OI $352.50 (1,541). Structural: Call wall $400-$525

Verdict: Favorable — strong positive GEX (+$54.3M) supports pinning near current levels, reducing tail risk for credit positions

Premium Opportunities

reverse calendar spread

Sell $375 call 5/01 (25 DTE) at ~37.7% IV, buy $375 call 5/08 (32 DTE) at ~35.9% IV

Capitalizes on the significant IV hump: sell high-IV (37.7%) May 1st option, buy lower-IV (35.9%) May 8th option. Profits from IV compression of the near-term option relative to longer-dated and accelerated theta decay on the short leg. Positive GEX at $375 (+$2.9M) reduces pin risk.

Credit: $0.40-$0.60

Max loss: Limited (difference in strikes minus credit)

BE: Depends on IV convergence and spot movement

Mgmt: Close when IV differential narrows to ~1 vol point or at 50% max profit. Exit if spot moves beyond $380 or $370. Manage before earnings (4/29).

put spread

Sell $370/$365 put spread 4/24 (18 DTE)

Positive GEX pinning supports $370 level (+$339K GEX). Short strike aligns with max pain $370 (4/10) and 2d EM lower bound $366.62. IV elevated (27.5% for 4/24) for premium.

Credit: $0.80-$0.95

Max loss: $4.05

BE: $369.20

Mgmt: Close at 65% profit. Exit if spot closes below $366.62 (2d EM lower). Roll up/out if tested.

iron condor

Sell $365/$360P x $385/$390C 5/01 (25 DTE)

Wide range between 1w EM bounds ($362.53/$383.23). Positive GEX supports pinning. Uses high IV at 5/01 (37.7%) for premium. Call side uses $385 call OI cluster, put side uses $365 max pain support.

Credit: $1.20-$1.50

Max loss: $3.50

BE: 363.80/386.20

Mgmt: Close at 50% profit. Exit if spot breaches either short strike. Manage before earnings.

cash-secured put

Sell $365 put 5/08 (32 DTE)

Strike at max pain $365 (4/08, 4/13) and above 1w EM lower bound $362.53. Elevated IV (35.9% for 5/08) provides premium. Positive GEX supports.

Credit: $2.37-$2.45

Max loss: $362.55

BE: $362.63

Mgmt: Close at 70% profit. Roll down/out if spot closes below $362.53. Accept assignment if comfortable at $365.

Risk Alerts

!Earnings 4/29 — close all short premium positions before announcement (3 weeks out), especially May 1st expiries

!Mixed flow regime — large put premium at $490 ($29.3M net) suggests institutional hedging, monitor for downside pressure

!VIX data unavailable — monitor for spike above 25 which would increase tail risk and affect IV hump dynamics

!Call wall $400-$525 — limits upside but distant from spot (+7% to +41%), reducing near-term resistance

!Unusual put volume at $370 (5,913 vol, 25.9x OI) — watch for increased selling pressure near support

!IV hump at May 1st (37.7%) — risk of IV compression failing to materialize or accelerating due to earnings proximity

How to Use These Reports

This theta reflects the market close on April 6, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.