thetaOwl

MSFT

Microsoft CorporationClose $450.24EOD only
Max Pain
$415.00
Next expiry Jun 1, 2026
Expected Move
±$7.85
1.7% from close
Price Gap
-35.24
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
37
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.46
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
8.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 29, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSFT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 29, 2026 close
MSFT Flow Report
Analysis based on market close April 13, 2026

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 13, 2026. A newer flow report is available for May 26, 2026.

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Flow Verdict

BiasBullish
Confirmation: Sustained net premium remaining >$100M (current Net Premium $183.7M) with P/C volume ratio <0.6 and further call OI buildup around $380-$385 into next expiries.
Invalidation: Net premium flips negative or P/C volume ratio rises above 1.0, or meaningful put buying flow (>$20M) appears at or above $380 strikes pushing GEX down from +$213.2M.
Confidence:
8 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -0.5 spot 3.9% from MP; +0.5 VIX 19

Watch next session: $380-$385 call OI / premium flows (near‑term: $380 net call premium $76,989,706); Large put prints at $377.50-$380 for 4/15 that would signal defensive repositioning

Flow Summary

Net premium: +$183.7M bullish

P/C volume ratio: 0.36 — strong call-dominant volume

P/C OI ratio: 0.45 — call-lean in positioning (moderate)

Clear, institution-scale call buying and/or call-heavy positioning concentrated at near-spot strikes ($375–$385) is driving a bullish flow regime. Dealers are long gamma (GEX +$213.2M) and setting up pinning around $380–$385, while large structural call OI out beyond $405 creates a distant resistance band.

Notable Prints

#1
MSFT 2026-04-13 $382.50 Call
Vol: 63,486
OI: 1,629
Vol/OI: 39.0x
IV: 6.7%
Notional: ~$11.68M
Intent: Fresh directional call buying / short-delta dealer hedges (same-day expiry pinning)
Dual read: Aggressive buyer of calls (bullish) or seller overwriting existing exposure (neutral) given low IV and 0d expiry.

Read-through: Large same-day ITM call flow is consistent with pinning into $380–$385 and forced dealer delta rebalancing; contributes to positive GEX and upward price support intraday.

#2
MSFT 2026-04-13 $380.00 Put
Vol: 27,826
OI: 148
Vol/OI: 188.0x
IV: 10.0%
Notional: ~$27.8K
Intent: Expiration-day option activity — likely rapid closing/rolling or gamma-driven churn rather than a fresh large directional hedge.
Dual read: Could be large fast sellers (closing) or cheap emergency hedges by short-term players.

Read-through: Very high vol/OI but negligible premium; not meaningful long-dated protective put buying. Primarily an expiration/gamma event.

#3
MSFT 2026-04-13 $385.00 Call
Vol: 35,125
OI: 1,625
Vol/OI: 21.6x
IV: 2.0%
Notional: ~$702.5K
Intent: Same-day ITM call accumulation — directional intraday bullish bets or delta adjustments from dealers.
Dual read: Buy-side bullish or market-maker risk management creating large print; low IV suggests executed by liquidity providers.

Read-through: Adds to near-term pin concentration at $385 (GEX +$18.3M at $385) and supports dealer hedging that cushions downside.

#4
MSFT 2026-04-15 $380.00 Put
Vol: 3,253
OI: 113
Vol/OI: 28.8x
IV: 25.4%
Notional: ~$561K
Intent: Short-dated protective puts or tactical downside hedge into the 4/15 expiry.
Dual read: Could be genuine protective buying (bearish/defensive) or part of expiration roll/structure for sellers.

Read-through: Notable but modest notional vs call premium at same strikes; insufficient to offset dominant call premium concentration at $380 ($86.12M call premium).

#5
MSFT 2026-04-13 $375.00 Put
Vol: 19,062
OI: 460
Vol/OI: 41.4x
IV: 19.5%
Notional: ~$190.6K
Intent: Same-day hedging/closing activity — tactical protective flow or expiration gamma churn.
Dual read: Could be short-term protection (bearish) or closing of earlier positions (neutral).

Read-through: Large vol/OI but small premium relative to call premium. Reinforces that much of the unusual expiring put flow is expiry mechanics, not a change in institutional directional exposure.

Institutional Positioning

Call additions: Heavy call premium concentrated at $375-$385 (Top Premium Flow: $380 net call premium $76,989,706; $375 net $47,306,194; $382.50 net $18,621,385). Structural call OI band sits $405–$575 but near-term buying is focused closer to spot.

Put additions: Limited put accumulation; near-term put OI clusters at $360 and $365 exist but premium flow is dominated by calls. Some tactical short-dated put prints exist (4/13 and 4/15) but not large enough to change net position.

GEX/DEX consistency: Yes — Net premium +$183.7M and positive Total GEX +$213.2M align with the 'Bullish' flow classification and the observed pinning around $380–$385.

OI clusters: Near-term OI clusters: calls at $380 (5,041 OI), $375 (2,565 OI), $390 (2,533 OI); puts concentrated below spot at $365 (2,526 OI) and $360 (2,359 OI). Long-dated structural call wall at $405-$575 (calls OI heavy) creates a distant supply band.

Hedging evidence: Dealer positioning (GEX +$213.2M) indicates dealers are net long gamma — likely short underlying delta vs long options (call-heavy flow). There is limited evidence of large protective collars or substantial institutional put accumulation in the near-term expiries.

Max pain context: Max Pain cluster sits at $370 for several near expiries but the short-term MP for 4/17 is $380 — with spot above MP and pinning concentrated at $380–$385, dealers are positioned to pin spot in that band rather than push toward $370 immediately.

Signal vs Noise

~Large same-day expiry prints (4/13) at $380, $382.50, $385 — high vol/OI but very low premium or low IV: primarily expiration/gamma churn and dealer delta adjustments, not fresh directional large‑term bets.
~Many deep vol/OI ratio prints on 0–2d expiries (e.g., $380P vol/oi 188x) — treat as expiry mechanics rather than durable protective put accumulation.
~Structural high OI at $405-$575 calls is long-dated positioning/sell-side supply; single-day spikes near those strikes are likely part of spread rolls or covered call activity, not pure directional new buying.

Key Conclusions

🐂Large net premium (+$183.7M) and low P/C volume ratio (0.36) point to meaningful institutional call demand concentrated at $375–$385.
📌Dealer GEX +$213.2M and near-term GEX concentration at $380–$385 create pinning risk — expect spot to gravitate toward $380–$385 absent a flow reversal.
🧾Expiration-day prints (4/13) are noisy: large vol/OI ratios but tiny premiums — these are gamma/roll mechanics and should not be overread as institutional put insurance.
🛡️Modest 4/15 put activity exists (e.g., $380P vol 3,253, notional ~$561K) — monitor for follow-through; sustained put premium would weaken the bullish thesis.
🚧Key resistance cluster inside the ±10% band is $405 (call wall); watch EM guardrails $391.17 and $395.72 as near-term upside caps.
🧭Support / pin band is $380–$385 (near-term GEX +$18.3M at $385; +$9.1M at $380), with max pain at $370 providing a lower structural anchor if flow flips.
How to Use These Reports
This flow reflects the market close on April 13, 2026.
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Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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