thetaOwl

MSFT

Microsoft CorporationClose $416.03EOD only
Max Pain
$415.00
Next expiry May 27, 2026
Expected Move
±$4.63
1.1% from close
Price Gap
-1.03
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
17
Low premium
P/C OI
0.46
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
8.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 26, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSFT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 26, 2026 close
MSFT Flow Report
Analysis based on market close April 8, 2026

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 8, 2026. A newer flow report is available for May 26, 2026.

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Flow Verdict

BiasMixed (lean Bearish)
Confirmation: Net premium remains negative with continued short-dated put buying at 370–380 strikes AND price moves toward $370–$375
Invalidation: Net premium flips positive or sustained call premium inflows at near-term strikes (365–385) and price breaks above $383 with call OI accumulation
Confidence:
5.5 / 10
base 5.5; net premium large negative (-$141.8M) bearish; +GEX $84.3M pinning but mixed volume profile (P/C vol 0.53) creates ambiguity

Watch next session: Follow short-dated put flow at $375/$377.50/$372.50 (fresh buying or closing); Watch price reaction to $380 (GEX pin magnet) — strong rejection would reinforce pin

Flow Summary

Net premium: -$141.8M bearish (net premium skew toward puts)

P/C volume ratio: 0.53 — call-dominant by volume, but premium skew contradicts

P/C OI ratio: 0.45 — OI tilts toward calls (longer-dated call walls), but today's flow is put-heavy in premium

Today’s tape shows sizable net premium paid into puts (-$141.8M) concentrated in short-dated strikes around 372.50–380.00, suggesting institutions are buying protection or taking bearish directional exposure into the near expiries. Volume-based metrics still show call activity (P/C vol 0.53) driven by many smaller call trades and large multi-expiry call OI walls ($400–$525) — the result is a mixed regime with a near-term bearish tilt but dealer gamma (GEX +$84.3M) reinforcing pinning around 375–380.

Notable Prints

#1
MSFT 2026-04-10 $375.00 Put
Vol: 7,094
OI: 1,240
Vol/OI: 5.7x
IV: 31.2%
Notional: ~$2.55M
Intent: Protective put buying or fresh short-dated bearish exposure
Dual read: Bought puts (bearish/protection) OR large block sellers being opened (less likely given vol/OI and net premium)

Read-through: Concentrated short-dated put premium at-the-money; consistent with institutions hedging downside near the $370 MP or positioning for a near-term pullback.

#2
MSFT 2026-04-10 $372.50 Put
Vol: 6,335
OI: 715
Vol/OI: 8.9x
IV: 31.3%
Notional: ~$1.66M
Intent: Directional bearish bet/insurance centered at just below spot
Dual read: Aggressive bought puts (bearish) OR block compression/roll of existing positions

Read-through: Very high vol/OI ratio at a strike that sits near max pain; strong short-dated buying signal that amplifies near-term downside skew.

#3
MSFT 2026-04-10 $377.50 Put
Vol: 4,832
OI: 260
Vol/OI: 18.6x
IV: 31.4%
Notional: ~$2.48M
Intent: Fresh directional protection / quick hedge (ITM by ~1%)
Dual read: Bought as immediate insurance (bearish) OR market-maker delta management (short-dated adjustment)

Read-through: Extremely unusual vol/OI suggests an active trade (likely a buyer of downside protection) placed right around immediate spot — reinforces short-term bearish/hedge narrative.

#4
MSFT 2026-04-10 $380.00 Put
Vol: 3,847
OI: 912
Vol/OI: 4.2x
IV: 31.0%
Notional: ~$2.63M
Intent: Protective puts or directional put buying up to the dealer pin at $380
Dual read: Bought puts (defensive) OR part of option structure (e.g., put-heavy spread)

Read-through: Large notional centered on the $380 GEX magnet — could be buying of protection with an eye toward pinning around that level or taking a tactical short bias.

#5
MSFT 2026-04-10 $382.50 Call
Vol: 6,872
OI: 2,476
Vol/OI: 2.8x
IV: 30.5%
Notional: ~$0.50M
Intent: Call buying/rolls or spread leg (small notional per contract)
Dual read: Fresh call purchases (bullish hedge) OR dealers selling/narrow spread activity

Read-through: Meaningful call activity at the upper near-term range that could represent hedges or take-profit positioning — but not large enough in premium to offset put-heavy net premium.

Institutional Positioning

Call additions: $400–$525 long-dated call OI wall (structural); near-term call OI clusters at $380/$390/$400 indicate dealers are long gamma in that band

Put additions: Short-dated put buying concentrated at $372.50/$375.00/$377.50/$380.00 (significant premium today); long-dated tail puts also printed (e.g., $490.00 06-18) suggesting selective long-dated hedges

GEX/DEX consistency: Partially consistent — positive Total GEX $84.3M supports dealer pinning behavior around 375–380 while net premium (-$141.8M) shows customers buying puts; GEX helps keep price near magnets despite bearish premium flow

OI clusters: Near-term OI clusters: calls at $380 (9,697), $390 (7,191), $400 (6,259); puts cluster at $370 (3,980), $365 (3,854), $360 (3,511) — creates a shallow pin around $370–$380 with longer-term call walls well above spot

Hedging evidence: Clear evidence of near-term protective puts (short-dated, ATM/ITM) — consistent with institutions hedging or adding bearish exposure; little sign of extensive collar structures in the near chain, though long-dated put prints hint at selective tail protection

Max pain context: Max Pain concentrated at $370 across multiple expirations. Spot ($374.33) sits above MP; combined with GEX pin magnets at $375/$372.50/$380, dealers have incentive to keep price around the 370–380 range into expiries.

Signal vs Noise

~Short-dated put prints around 372.50–377.50 are likely directional hedges/protection (signal), not dividend-related noise.
~Large long-dated put prints (e.g., $490 06-18 and $220 05-15) are likely structured hedges or tail protection and should not be read as immediate directional flow.
~High call OI at $400–$525 is structural (long-dated call wall) and represents passive positioning rather than fresh intraday bullish flow.
~Some call volume (P/C vol 0.53) is comprised of many small trades and OTM call activity — noise relative to concentrated put premium by dollar value.

Key Conclusions

⚖️Regime is mixed but leans bearish: large net premium into puts (-$141.8M) concentrated in short-dated strikes while GEX (+$84.3M) supports pinning near 375–380.
📌Max Pain and dealer GEX cluster at $370–$380 — expect pinning pressure in that band into near expirations.
🛡️Heavy short-dated put buying at $372.50/$375/$377.50 likely reflects institutional protection or tactical bearish bets — watch for continuation.
🚪Long-dated call OI wall from $400–$525 is structural; it cushions upside but is unlikely to flip near-term bias without fresh call premium inflows.
👀Watch whether net premium stays negative and if price reverts toward $370–$375; a break above $383 with call premium would invalidate current bearish tilt.
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This flow reflects the market close on April 8, 2026.
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