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MSFT

Microsoft CorporationClose $370.87EOD only
Max Pain
$370.00
Next expiry Apr 13, 2026
Expected Move
±$5.16
1.4% from close
Price Gap
-0.87
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
96
High premium
P/C OI
0.45
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.0/10
Range bias
Published snapshot: Apr 10, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSFT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Apr 10, 2026 close
MSFT Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close April 8, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 8, 2026. A newer earnings report is available for April 10, 2026.

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Earnings Verdict

MSFT is in a pinning regime (GEX +$84.3M) with spot $374.33 trading above repeated max-pain at $370. Short premium-selling around the near-term (2–12d) makes sense given dealer pinning and subdued short-dated IV, but the actual company earnings are 21 days out (2026-04-29), where front-month IV (2026-05-01 ATM 38.8%) is materially higher. Best strategy: defined-risk premium sell into dealer pinning for near-term expiries or a directional/debit spread into the May cycle to play earnings. Key risk: a large gap outside EM rails on guidance or macro shock will blow out short premium sellers because skew and longer-dated IV are richer.

Confidence:
5.5 / 10
base 5.5 per pre-computed; +1 pinning/GEX (+$84.3M) supports range-bound; -1 mixed flow/net premium negative; +0.5 spot 1.2% above MP
Most important: Watch front-month IV (May 01 ATM 38.8%) vs current short-dated IV — a move higher into earnings makes long-debit plays more expensive, while low short-dated IV + strong GEX supports premium selling.
📅Earnings date on file: 2026-04-29 (TBD) — front-month May 01 ATM IV 38.8% already implies a sizable move.
📌Max pain repeatedly at $370 across near expirations — pairing premium sells inside $370-$380 aligns with dealer pinning.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Normal
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
Above

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-04-29 (TBD) (21 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-04-10 (2d): ±$6.80 (1.8%) [$367.53 - $381.13]
  • 2026-05-01 (23d): ±$28.68 (7.7%) [$345.65 - $403.00]

IV Setup

Term structure: Short-dated ATM IV is relatively subdued (2026-04-10 ATM 31.3%) while the May 01 ATM sits at 38.8%, implying the market is already pricing a larger move into the month that contains the 2026-04-29 earnings. Term structure shows a jump from short (31.3%) → front-month (38.8%).

Crush estimate: Post-earnings IV could compress back toward the longer-dated baseline (30-33% on multi-month expiries). Given 2026-05-01 ATM 38.8% vs nearby 2–12d ATMs in the 25–31% band, expect a potential IV relief of order ~6–10 vol points from the May spike back toward the 30s after an event (estimate anchored to ATM values shown).

Skew: Puts near spot are active (unusual volume in ITM/near-ITM puts like 375/377.5/380), but call OI walls sit higher (structural call OI wall at $400-$525). Overall skew modestly favors large-tail put interest in flow but front-call OI concentration at higher strikes.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (4/4 quarters in table: all EPS beats)

Avg move vs expected: Not provided explicitly — historical EPS surprises have been positive (examples: 2025-12-31 surprise +0.34; other quarters +0.02/ +0.08/+0.08)

Directional bias: Recent historical EPS prints skew positive; conditional bias modestly bullish on beats but not large enough to guarantee post-earnings gap

Key Levels

1$370.00 (max pain / concentrated put OI / dealer pin level)
2$380.00 (near-term GEX concentration +$14.3M; call OI cluster 9,697)
3$375.00 (near-term GEX +$6.8M; active strikes & unusual put volume)

Flow Highlights

Large premium net flow at high strikes: e.g. $490.00 Net $-26,442,368 and $475.00 Net $-20,400,606 (top premium flow list).

Substantial net negative premium at far OTM strikes suggests heavy put buying or complex structures sold to buyers — flow tilted toward downside tail hedging or structured buying, increasing demand for long-dated protection.

Significant call premium at $400.00: Net $12,725,262 (top premium flow).

Dealer-absorbed call selling at $400 could act as a cap if spot approaches that zone; aligns with structural call OI wall $400-$525.

Unusual activity in near-term puts: 2026-04-10 P $377.50 (Vol 4,832, OI 260) and P $372.50 (Vol 6,335, OI 715).

Flow concentrated in near-ATM/ITM short-dated puts—either directional hedging or aggressive positioning around pin levels; supports near-term pinning and increases risk of delta-hedge flows if spot moves.

Strategies

Defined-risk May debit (earnings directional)
Buy 2026-05-01 380/370 put spread (buy 380P / sell 370P) to express downside into earnings
Max loss: $4.00
Max gain: $6.00
BE: $376.00 (approx, spread midpoint assumptions vs May EM $345.65-$403.00)
Trigger: Enter 3-7 days before earnings if May IV has not run meaningfully >40% or if skew shows elevated put demand
Defined risk limits tail exposure while targeting downside priced into May (ATM May IV 38.8%). Uses available strikes (370, 380) and aligns with active put flow.
Outperforms: Stock gaps down into or below the May EM lower bound (~$345.65) or drifts lower into the spread at expiry; also a hedge if headline is negative.
Underperforms: MSFT remains above $380 through May expiry and IV collapses without a significant realized move.
May long straddle (pure volatility play)
Buy 2026-05-01 375 straddle (buy 375C + buy 375P)
Max loss: $30.00
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: $345.65 / $403.00 (reference to May 01 EM bounds; breakevens will equal purchase cost below/above spot)
Trigger: Enter 1–3 days before earnings if IV is stable or rising; avoid if IV has already ripped >45% as entry becomes costly
Direct play on the calendared earnings event priced into the May cycle (ATM May 38.8%). Historical EPS beats are frequent but not guaranteed; straddle captures either-direction large moves.
Outperforms: Realized move at earnings exceeds the May EM (~±$28.68 or ~7.7%), or large gap beyond that range.
Underperforms: Stock pins near $375 at close of event and IV collapses, or realized move is < EM.
Near-term Apr10 iron condor (premium sell into pinning)
Sell 2026-04-10 365/360 put spread + sell 385/390 call spread (collect net credit)
Credit: $1.20-$1.60
Max loss: $3.80
Max gain: $1.60
BE: $363.40 on downside / $386.60 on upside (approx depending on fills)
Trigger: Enter 1-2 days before expiration if spot remains between $370-$380 and bid/ask for wings is liquid
Short-dated IV is relatively low and GEX is pinning near $375-$380; selling premium to capture time decay can be favorable if comfortable with defined risk.
Outperforms: Spot stays within April 10 EM rail (~$367.53-$381.13) and dealers' pinning (GEX concentration at 375/380) keeps price stable.
Underperforms: A gap >EM on macro news or company-specific headlines occurs before expiration; limited protection vs large gaps.

Risk Assessment

!Gap risk: May 01 EM ±$28.68 (~$345.65–$403.00). A single guidance-driven gap can easily exceed near-term EM and wipe out short premium sellers.
!IV crush / run-up: May ATM IV 38.8% is elevated into the earnings window; if IV runs to >45% pre-event, long-debit trades become expensive and short sellers may face mark-to-market pain if IV spikes.
!Dealer pinning risk: Large positive GEX (+$84.3M) can mute moves inside the near-term rail but also accelerates moves once dealers cross a strike region—watch GEX concentrations (e.g., +$14.3M at $380).
!Liquidity: Very liquid overall (Total OI 3,244,694, volume 414,903) but strike-by-strike liquidity varies — tightness is best in common strikes (365–380). Wide bid/ask on farther strikes (>$400) can raise execution costs.
!Sizing: Use defined-risk sizing on premium sells (condors) and keep long straddles to a smaller notional because implied can compress post-event; consider hedging one side if extreme tail risk is a concern.

What to Watch

?Front-month ATM IV trajectory (2026-05-01 ATM 38.8%) leading into 2026-04-29
?Unusual near-term put activity (noted: 2026-04-10 P 377.50 and P 372.50) that could signal hedging or directional buildup
?Dealer GEX concentrations at $375 and $380 (+$6.8M and +$14.3M) — these are likely pin magnets
?Net premium flows at high strikes (e.g., $490/$475) indicating structure/hedge buying that could alter skew

Read the Earnings analysis for MSFT for 2026-04-08. Each report is a market-close snapshot with regime read, key levels, and strategy context that translates options positioning into an actionable setup.