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ASML

ASML Holding N.V. - New York ReClose $1841.18EOD only
Max Pain
$1775.00
Next expiry Jun 26, 2026
Expected Move
±$47.05
2.6% from close
Price Gap
-66.18
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
16
Low premium
P/C OI
1.30
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
6.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 25, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects ASML options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 25, 2026 close
ASML Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close June 26, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

ASML earnings Jul 15; 19d out; implied move ~5.6% near-term; 80% beat rate but put-heavy flow suggests caution.

Confidence:
5 / 10
base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; +0.5 spot 1.1% from MP; +0.5 VIX 18
Most important: Unusual call buying at $1800/$1900 vs elevated put ratios creates mixed signal; watch IV crush and support at $1700.
🛡️Put-heavy hedging: put/call ratio 1.65 indicates defensive positioning.
🚀Unusual call activity: $1900 calls 2.5x vol/oi signals speculative upside.
⚠️IV crush risk: high near-term IV likely to contract sharply post-earnings.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Trending
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
Above
Gamma flip: ~$1700.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 4,382 (5.3% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-15 (19 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-07-02 (6d): ±$99.70 (5.6%)
  • 2026-07-10 (14d): ±$153.25 (8.5%)
  • 2026-07-17 (21d): ±$211.35 (11.8%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Upward sloping: 6d ±5.6%, 14d ±8.5%, 21d ±11.8%

Crush estimate: Significant post-earnings IV crush; near-term expected to contract ~30-40%

Skew: Put skew elevated; put/call OI ratio 1.34, volume ratio 1.65

Historical Context

Beat rate: 80% (4/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Not explicitly available; 80% beat rate suggests moves often larger or in direction of beat.

Directional bias: Slightly bearish due to put dominance, but unusual call activity adds uncertainty.

Key Levels

1$1700.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 1w $1694.92/$1894.32
3Max pain pins: $1775 (2026-06-26); $1760 (2026-07-02); $1715 (2026-07-10)

Flow Highlights

Unusual call buying: $1800 C (362 vol, 146 OI) and $1900 C (942 vol, 486 OI) with high vol/oi ratios.

Speculative bullish bets or hedging against upside risk despite heavy put interest.

Unusual put purchase: $1770 P (232 vol, 136 OI) at support zone.

Hedging or bearish bet near max pain.

Strategies

Bull Call Spread
Buy 2026-07-17 $1800.00/$1840.00 call spread
Debit: $15.03-$18.37
Max loss: $18.37
Max gain: $21.63
BE: $1818.37
Trigger: Exit if stock falls below $1775 invalidation.
Unusual call activity signals upside; defined risk and lower vega suit IV crush.
Outperforms: Buys upside exposure at lower cost, benefiting from move above $1840.
Underperforms: Loss of support weakens upside continuation thesis.
Bear Put Spread
Buy 2026-07-17 $1800.00/$1760.00 put spread
Debit: $16.07-$19.64
Max loss: $19.64
Max gain: $20.36
BE: $1780.36
Trigger: Exit if stock rises above $1900 invalidation. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_put: Volume below 5.
Put dominance favors downside; defined risk limits loss.
Outperforms: Profits if stock falls below $1800, max gain at $1760.
Underperforms: Trade above resistance weakens downside thesis.
Call Calendar
Sell 2026-07-17 $1800.00 call / buy 2026-07-24 $1800.00 call
Debit: $13.54-$16.55
Max loss: $16.55
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Close if stock breaks below $1775 support. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_call: Volume below 5.
Captures IV crush premium decay; net theta positive near strike.
Outperforms: Sells high IV front call, buys back-week to profit from crush.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.
Long strangle
Buy 2026-07-17 $1760.00 put + buy $1840.00 call
Debit: $159.12-$194.48
Max loss: $194.48
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: 1565.52 / 2034.48
Mixed signals (put dominance vs unusual call buying) suggest high uncertainty; long strangle profits from any significant move.
Outperforms: Buy 1840C and 1760P Jul17 to profit from earnings move.
Underperforms: Insufficient realized move reduces long-strangle edge.

Risk Assessment

!High implied move; downside risk to $1700 support if earnings disappoint.
!IV crush can erode premium for option holders post-event.
!Geopolitical risk: semiconductor export restrictions could impact outlook.

What to Watch

?Earnings date: Jul 15, 2026
?Key support: $1775 (max pain) and $1700; resistance $1900-$2100 call wall
?Price action around $1800 strike; unusual activity there
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on June 26, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.