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ASML

ASML Holding N.V. - New York ReClose $1929.68EOD only
Max Pain
$1700.00
Next expiry Jun 26, 2026
Expected Move
±$61.10
3.2% from close
Price Gap
-229.68
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
100
High premium
P/C OI
1.36
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
7.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 18, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects ASML options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 18, 2026 close
ASML Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close June 22, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

ASML earnings 15Jul, 23d out. Historical beat rate 80%. IV steep: 4d 5.4% to 18d 9.8%. Flow mixed: unusual put 1450 (bearish hedge), call 2100 (bullish). Spot above MP 1750. Guarded bullish with downside hedges.

Confidence:
8 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 10.2% from MP; +1 VIX 17
Most important: Watch 1750/1700 support, 2100 resistance. 1450 put and 2100 call prints signal wide range. IV crush >50% expected.
⚠️Put volume ratio 1.89 and deep OTM put at 1450 suggest bearish positioning.
✅Historical beat rate 80% supports bullish fundamental case.
📊Term structure steepens into earnings; IV crush likely significant.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
Above
Gamma flip: ~$1700.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 2,881 (11.9% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-15 (23 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-06-26 (4d): ±$104.45 (5.4%)
  • 2026-07-02 (10d): ±$146.05 (7.6%)
  • 2026-07-10 (18d): ±$188.45 (9.8%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Steep: 4d 5.4% to 18d 9.8% (pre-earnings buildup). Post-earnings vols likely higher.

Crush estimate: Expected 50-70% crush post-earnings from current levels.

Skew: Put skew elevated (PCR 1.89). Deep OTM puts active, call wall at 2100.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 80% (4/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Not available; beat rate 80% suggests frequent upside surprises.

Directional bias: Bullish (80% beat rate).

Key Levels

1$1700.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 1w $1783.20/$2075.30
3Max pain pins: $1750 (2026-06-26); $1700 (2026-07-02); $1730 (2026-07-10)

Flow Highlights

Unusual put buy at 1450 strike, 6/26 exp, vol/oi 2.4, IV 91%.

Bearish hedge or speculative put; expects large downside.

Unusual call buy at 2100 strike, 6/26 exp, vol/oi 1.8, IV 61.5%.

Bullish upside bet above resistance.

Strategies

Wide Strangle
Buy 2026-07-17 $1740.00 put + buy $2100.00 call
Debit: $97.11-$118.69
Max loss: $118.69
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: 1621.31 / 2218.69
Trigger: Exit if IV collapses or spot nears wings.
Fits mixed flow and wide range; liquid strikes.
Outperforms: Buys 1740 put and 2100 call, profits if spot moves >5%.
Underperforms: Insufficient realized move reduces long-strangle edge.
Iron condor
Sell 2026-07-17 $1760.00/$1600.00 put wing and $2180.00/$2420.00 call wing
Credit: $55.26-$67.54
Max loss: $172.46
Max gain: $67.54
BE: 1692.46 / 2247.54
80% beat rate but spot above MP; define risk with wings.
Outperforms: Range-bound premium harvest around 1900, expecting IV crush post-earnings.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.
Call diagonal
Sell 2026-07-02 $2040.00 call / buy 2026-07-17 $2140.00 call
Debit: $16.92-$20.68
Max loss: $20.68
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Pre-earnings IV elevated, back-month relatively cheaper; directional bias bullish but hedge with long call.
Outperforms: Sell rich near-term call premium, own back-month call to capture term structure edge.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.

Risk Assessment

!IV crush >50% risk for long vega.
!Spot 10.2% above max pain (1750), pull risk.
!Deep OTM put activity signals downside.
!Call OI wall at 2100 may cap upside.
!Market risk-off: SPY/QQQ negative, VIX 17.28.

What to Watch

?Max pain: 1750 (6/26), 1700 (7/2), 1730 (7/10)
?Resistance: 2100 call wall, 2117.7 guardrail
?Support: 1750, 1740.8
?Gamma flip at 1700 (put concentration)
?Earnings: 15 Jul, next 6/26 expiry pinning
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on June 22, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.