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ASML

ASML Holding N.V. - New York ReClose $1863.55EOD only
Max Pain
$1500.00
Next expiry Jun 18, 2026
Expected Move
±$103.60
5.6% from close
Price Gap
-363.55
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
100
High premium
P/C OI
1.41
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
6.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 12, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects ASML options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 12, 2026 close
ASML Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close June 15, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

Earnings in 30 days; 80% beat rate bullish, heavy put hedging bearish. Mixed signals.

Confidence:
8 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 24.5% from MP; +1 VIX 16
Most important: High put activity at 1750-1730 vs 80% historical beat rate.
🛡️Heavy put buying at 1750-1730 suggests downside hedging pre-earnings.
📈80% beat rate historically bullish, but flow warns of caution.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
Above
Gamma flip: ~$1400.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 3,315 (26.0% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-15 (30 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-06-18 (3d): ±$89.60 (4.7%)
  • 2026-06-26 (11d): ±$155.50 (8.2%)
  • 2026-07-02 (17d): ±$188.55 (10.0%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Upward sloping; front-week ±4.7%, 17d ±10.0%.

Crush estimate: Moderate post-earnings crush expected.

Skew: Put skew elevated; notable put buying at 1750 and 1730 strikes.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 80% (4/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Implied moves in line with historical average.

Directional bias: Neutral-bullish on beat rate, but caution from put flow.

Key Levels

1$1400.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 2d $1803.06/$1982.26
3Max pain pins: $1520 (2026-06-18); $1640 (2026-06-26); $1675 (2026-07-02)

Flow Highlights

Large put orders: 261 vol at 1750 (1.8x OI), 245 at 1730 (1.5x OI).

Hedging or bearish positioning ahead of earnings.

Put/call volume ratio 1.26, OI ratio 1.31.

Persistent put demand outweighing calls.

Strategies

Capped Neutral Iron Condor
Sell 2026-07-17 $1760.00/$1600.00 put wing and $2120.00/$2340.00 call wing
Credit: $68.58-$83.82
Max loss: $136.18
Max gain: $83.82
BE: 1676.18 / 2203.82
Trigger: Close at 50% max gain or if spot breaches wings; adjust if IV crush completes. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_call: Volume below 5.; long_call: Volume below 5.
Neutral-bullish bias with caution from put flow; wings cap tail risk from potential large moves.
Outperforms: Sells premium within expected range, collecting theta while limiting downside from earnings gap.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.
Short Strangle
Sell 2026-07-17 $1760.00 put + sell $2120.00 call
Credit: $116.64-$142.56
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $142.56
BE: 1617.44 / 2262.56
Trigger: Monitor delta; roll or hedge if spot approaches strikes; exit before earnings if uncertain. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_call: Volume below 5.
High IV and upward term structure favor premium sale, but unlimited risk warrants caution.
Outperforms: Sells out-of-the-money put and call to capture premium before earnings.
Underperforms: Break outside short strikes invalidates short-vol thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Earnings miss could trigger gamma slide toward 1700 support.
!IV crush may offset directional gains; manage position sizing.

What to Watch

?Spot vs 1750 put accumulation for downside conviction.
?Gamma flip level ~1400 for large moves.
?Max pain pivots post-earnings.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on June 15, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.